Murphy Leads Over Ciatterelli, 52 To 36 Percent, In Latest Poll

WEST LONG BRANCH, NJ — Democrat Gov. Phil Murphy holds an 11- to 19-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the New Jersey governor's race, according to this Monmouth University poll, released Aug. 18.

The poll was done by Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch; pollsters called 810 registered voters across the state from August 11 to 16.

They found that just over half (52 percent) said they support Murphy while 36 percent said they will be voting for Ciattarelli.

Among voters who do not align with either party — a growing demographic in America —Murphy holds a narrow edge (44 percent to 38 percent).

Voting in the governor's race is fast approaching: Vote-by-mail ballots will be mailed out starting Sept. 18. A new option to do early in-person voting by machine starts Oct. 23.

Election Day is Nov. 2.

“Welcome to New Jersey elections, where a large chunk of the electorate does not tune in until mid-October. That means Ciattarelli still has to be introduced to most voters," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, who ran the poll. "The question is whether the candidate or his opponent gets to make the introduction. A good bet is the Murphy team will pour resources into ads casting the largely unknown challenger as too extreme for the state."

South Jersey for Ciattarelli; Central and North Jersey for Murphy

South Jersey is leaning for Ciattarelli (45 percent for him to 40 percent for Murphy), but he is not leading in what pollsters say is a region crucial for Republicans to win: Central Jersey.

Murphy leads in North Jersey (60 percent to 29 percent for Ciattarelli) and Central Jersey (52 percent to 38 percent for Ciattarelli).

This is because some upper-income Republicans in places like Somerset, Hunterdon and Monmouth counties soured on the GOP under Donald Trump's presidency, speculated Murray.

“The key to GOP victory in the past has been winning over upper-income moderate Republicans in Somerset County and working-class swing voters in Middlesex," he said. "Both these groups have swung decidedly toward the Democratic party during the Trump era, and it doesn’t look like they are about to swing back any time soon — even for someone like Ciattarelli, who is one of their own."

In fact, winning Central Jersey was key to helping Republican Chris Christie take control of the state in 2009, said Murray.

“Chris Christie won Central Jersey by 15 points when he narrowly ousted a Democratic incumbent in 2009 (Jon Corzine), but it appears to be Murphy territory this time around,” he said.

Ciattarelli himself is from Central Jersey: He is a former Assemblyman who represented New Jersey's 16th Legislative District (Hunterdon, Somerset, Princeton and South Brunswick) for three terms.

Ciattarelli ran his own accounting business and medical publishing company, and he paints himself as a Main Street small-business owner while depicting Murphy as an elite globalist who made millions on Wall Street while at Goldman Sachs. Murphy was also the United States ambassador to Germany for then-President Barack Obama. Murphy donated heavily to the Obama campaign before Obama appointed him to the plum post.

The poll also finds Murphy has a significant advantage among voters of color, 85 percent to 5 percent among Black voters and 69 percent to 19 percent among Latinos, Asians and multiracial voters.

Ciattarelli holds the lead among white voters (49 percent to 40 percent), but there is a split based on education. His lead with this group is largely due to white voters without a bachelor’s degree (55 percent to 34 percent). White college graduates narrowly prefer Murphy (48 percent to 41 percent for Ciattarelli).

Coronavirus is the most important issue to NJ voters

The 810 voters also told pollsters the most important issues facing the state right now are:

• The coronavirus pandemic (41 percent)
• Taxes, especially property taxes (32 percent)
• The economy and cost of living (15 percent)
• Income levels and wages (9 percent)
• Jobs and the job market (7 percent)

When asked whom they trust more to handle these top concerns, voters give Murphy a clear advantage on the pandemic (46 percent to 21 percent for Ciattarelli), but a narrower edge on jobs and the economy (35 percent to 27 percent).

Ciattarelli has criticized Murphy for forcing businesses to close at the start of the pandemic and what he says are Murphy's "sanctuary state" policies for those who are here illegally. Ciattarelli opposed a Murphy-driven plan to give driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants, which he said is part of the cause of long wait lines at the MVC.

“Governor Murphy’s incompetence has everyday hardworking New Jerseyans unable to get even the most basic services like obtaining a learner’s permit, while those here illegally get to go to the front of the line,” Ciattarelli said.

Ciattarelli is also against Murphy's K-12 mask mandate.

"The data's pretty clear. Masks inhibit learning and masks adversely affect the quality of a child's education," Ciattarelli said last week in Toms River. "They can have an adverse effect on the intellectual and emotional development of the child ... No one has said the times we are in are easy, but we are still a democracy. And in a democracy parents have the right to raise their children as they see fit."

He criticized Murphy for New Jersey's property taxes and for raising the state income tax on wealthy New Jersey residents.

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