Trump's Election Performance In Monmouth Worst For GOP Since 1996

MONMOUTH COUNTY, NJ — President Donald Trump eked out a win in traditionally red Monmouth County in the 2020 presidential race, but only by a mere 10,500 votes.

In the final vote counts, Trump won Monmouth County with 191,808 votes compared to 181,291 for President-Elect Joe Biden.

In fact, Trump delivered the worst results for a Republican presidential candidate in Monmouth County since 1996, when second-term-seeking Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole in Monmouth County, 122,000 votes to 99,000.

Republican presidential candidates usually win in Monmouth County, but never in recent history has the margin of victory been quite this slim: County-wide, Trump received less votes in 2016, but won by a much bigger percentage (166,723 for him; 137,181 for Hillary Clinton). In 2012 Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama in Monmouth (147,513 votes to 133,145) and in 2008, John McCain beat Obama in Monmouth, 160,433 votes to 148,737, also a close race.

Many Monmouth County political insiders said they were not surprised to see such a small margin of victory for Trump.

"It's not all that hard to figure out," said state Sen. Declan O'Scanlon, a Republican who represents this area in Trenton. "If you think of the areas where the president faced challenges within Republican circles, it's the centrist suburbanites. And there are a lot of those in Monmouth County."

"These are sophisticated voters,"he continued. "Think of it as a personal issue with Trump. The president is outspoken. It works for a lot of people. But a lot of others — think of all the John McCain fans — they are going to be less enthusiastic for (Trump). Many core Republican voters were less enthusiastic for Trump this year."

Trump also lost several Monmouth County towns that he won in 2016: Towns like Matawan, Highlands, Little Silver, Marlboro, Neptune and Shrewsbury all voted for Trump in 2016, but he failed to regain a majority vote there for his second term, according to the Asbury Park Press. All those towns voted for Biden this time instead.

A big part of it was how Trump handled the coronavirus pandemic, said Art Gallagher, a conservative political operative in Monmouth County.

"If COVID hadn't happened — or if he would have responded differently — he would have won," said Gallagher. "Trump's always been optimistic, saying 'We're getting this vaccine, etc.' That's how he is. A fighter. But there was so much angst. He could have gotten 80 million votes (nationally) if people felt that he understood their fear instead of attacking their fear."

Gallagher said Trump "missed an opportunity" on COVID to empathize with voters, especially as New Jersey watched its own former governor contract COVID after attending the Rose Garden swearing-in for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, an event now widely viewed as a super-spreader, where few were wearing masks.

"There were so many people getting it around him, (Chris) Christie and others," said Gallagher. "And he's telling people don't be scared. But they're saying, 'I am scared. And you're making me more scared. And if I get it, I'm not going to be treated the way you were, with 15 Johns Hopkins doctors standing around you.'"

"FDR said we have nothing to fear but fear itself," he said. "Trump was content to blame it on China."

Also, let's not forget that in 2016, McCain only beat Obama in Monmouth County by 11,696 votes, also a slim margin.

"I wouldn't say that 10,000 votes is barely winning. Local Republicans weren't really surprised by the result," added Gallagher. "This was consistent with what we've been hearing on the phone and in conversations. In 2016, the Democratic party totally misread how unpopular Hillary was, and that's another reason why Trump did better here in 2016 than in 2020."

Also, Monmouth County is simply not the stronghold of large numbers of Republican voters that it once was, even as recently as ten years ago.

John Weingart, a Rutgers professor who helps run the Rutgers' Eagleton Institute of Politics, said a big sea change in Monmouth County was in 2017, when state Sen. Vin Gopal, a Democrat from Long Branch, unseated Republican Jen Beck. Gopal's Democratic allies, Assembly members Joann Downey and Eric Houghtaling, also beat longtime Republican state representatives.

Gopal's win was a surprise upset, and it raised eyebrows in local Republican circles that Beck was unable to hold onto the NJ 11 state Senate seat (towns like Long Branch, Eatontown, Freehold, Red Bank and Ocean). NJ 11 remains a battleground for power between Monmouth County Dems and the GOP, and Gopal just announced this week he is running for re-election.

"That was the the big turning point, three years ago when Democrats defeated a number of Republicans," said Weingart. "It seems to me Monmouth is becoming less predictable with how it votes, which means more Democratic. I think we're witnessing Monmouth County solidifying its blueness."

Gallagher disagreed Monmouth will ever "go blue," but pointed out that Monmouth County actually does have more registered Democrats than registered Republicans: Currently there are 140,322 registered Democrats in Monmouth, and 138,575 Republicans, according to the county clerk.

That happened under Obama's first win in 2008, and the national wave of popularity he enjoyed, he said.

"It all goes back to the 2008 Democratic primary, when thousands of first-time voters registered to vote for either Clinton or Obama," he said. "Republicans never caught up to those registration numbers."

"Now, some of those Democrats may have voted for Trump in 2016," he said. "And this year there were people who didn't like Trump because of his personality, or his rhetoric. And then there were the never-Trumpers and Republicans who just don't like Trump."

Voter turnout was also huge in the 2020 presidential race, the highest in more than a century nationwide. New Jersey, like many states, saw a record number of people vote by mail for the first time ever.

"A lot of people voted in early October and they voted Democrat, so Trump lost the opportunity to win back people who, by the end of September or October, were fed up with him," said Gallagher. "And the people who voted earlier by mail tended to vote for Biden. I think if there had been a traditional election, the turnout would have been lower and Trump would have won by a higher margin in Monmouth County. And I think he would have won nationally, too."

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