Menendez Leaps Over Hugin In Latest NJ Poll; ‘Trump Effect’ Looms

Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez has gained a 12-point lead over Republican Bob Hugin in New Jersey’s U.S. Senate race, according to a Stockton University poll released on Friday, Nov. 2.

According to pollsters, Menendez leads with 51 percent to 39 percent for Hugin in the survey of 598 likely voters. Three percent support Libertarian Murray Sabrin, while six percent want another candidate or are “undecided.” (See the full results here)

It’s a big jump for Menendez, who was ahead of Hugin by only two percentage points when Stockton University released a poll on Oct. 1. Then, Menendez was supported by just 80 percent of Democrats; that number has climbed to 87 percent, pollsters reported.

After Stockton University released its Oct. 1 poll, Menendez shrugged the results off in a bit of political clairvoyance. "The Stockton Poll historically underestimates Democratic performance,” he said. “This is no different.”

• See related article: Polls Show Nail-Biting US Senate Race In New Jersey
• See related article: Everything To Know About The New Jersey 2018 Midterm Elections

As of Nov. 2, Hugin still leads among independents, but Menendez has gained six points among that voting group, with the percentage spread moving from 44-to-31 to 44-to-37. Hugin’s Republican support remains largely unchanged from 88 percent earlier to 90 percent, according to the Nov. 2 poll.

Menendez holds a small lead among male voters but has a 15-percentage-point edge among women. The candidates are tied among white voters, while Menendez holds strong leads among racial and ethnic minority voters. Menendez leads in northern New Jersey counties, where most of the population resides, and Hugin leads in South Jersey, pollsters stated.

THE TRUMP EFFECT

According to Stockton researchers, President Trump’s influence will weigh heavy on New Jersey voters on Nov. 6.

“Even though his name is not on the ballot, President Trump’s presence appears to be at the top of the ticket in New Jersey,” said Michael Klein, interim executive director of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy. “Our poll indicates that New Jersey’s voters oppose the president, and the best way to express that opposition at the ballot box is to re-elect Senator Menendez, despite any misgivings they might have about the senator himself.”

Pollsters stated:

“Asked to pick the main factor in deciding their votes from a list of choices, 35 percent choose “President Donald Trump” and 36 percent choose “Control of the Senate.” Only 19 percent choose corruption charges against Bob Menendez that ended in a mistrial, and only 4 percent choose Bob Hugin’s actions regarding drug prices as CEO of a pharmaceutical company. Ninety-five percent of Democrats say Trump or Senate control is motivating their votes.”

Other results of the Nov. 2 poll include:

• “Health care is named by 15 percent as the top issue in this election, with immigration named by 10 percent”
• “Taxes, including income and property taxes, are cited by 12 percent as the top issue”

The Stockton Polling Institute of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University interviewed 598 adult residents of New Jersey who were screened as likely voters. Live interviewers called landline and cell telephones Oct. 25 to 31.

The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4.0 percentage points, researchers said.

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Photo 1: menendez.senate.gov

Photo 2: Bob Hugin campaign