Winter Storm Warning In 18 NJ Counties: Here's What To Expect

So this one may be for real: New Jersey will likely get its biggest snowstorm of the season.

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for 18 New Jersey counties, with 5 to 8 inches expected to fall beginning after 1 p.m. on Sunday and lasting until 7 a.m. on Monday.

Schools will likely close, and Gov. Phil Murphy could declare a state of emergency. Read more: New Jersey School Closings/Delays List For Monday

Gov. Phil Murphy declared a state of emergency for the winter storm, and a commercial travel restriction is in effect. Read more: NJ Gov. Phil Murphy Declares State Of Emergency For Snowstorm

Snowfall rates of up to an inch per hour will be possible between about 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. on Sunday. Read more: New Jersey Snow Totals, Town-By-Town, On Sunday And Monday

How much snow is going to fall in your area? Read more: NJ Weather: Hour-By-Hour Forecast Of Snowstorm

The winter storm was warning was issued for all counties except for Atlantic and Cumberland – where a winter weather advisory was declared – and Cape May.

Moderate snow, which will be heavy at times, is expected. Travel could be very difficult, and the hazardous conditions are expected to impact those traveling on Sunday night and during the Monday morning commute.

Here are the alerted areas:

Here's' what to expect:

• A significant winter storm will affect much of the area this afternoon into early Monday morning. Total snow accumulations increased along the Interstate 95 corridor and eastward toward the New Jersey coast. While the wintry precipitation ends before the Monday morning commute, hazardous conditions should still be occurring.
• The greatest uncertainty continues to exist near and just southeast of the Interstate 95 corridor, with a mix of sleet and even a change to rain for some areas. There could very well be a much tighter gradient in the snow accumulations from near Interstate 95 to the south and east.
• Snowfall rates (1 inch per hour): Snow, or a combination of snow and sleet, may accumulate in a short period of time, quickly leading to hazardous road conditions.
• Heavy rainfall is possible farther to the south and east, including central to southern Delmarva and southeastern New Jersey. Localized flooding may occur.
• Spotty minor tidal flooding cannot be ruled out in portions of coastal New Jersey and Delaware on Monday morning

Here is what is also expected for the Sunday-Monday system, from the NJ Office of Emergency Management:

• Precipitation will build in from the southwest and west early Sunday afternoon, possibly starting briefly as rain or sleet in some locations.
• 1" to 2" of snow may fall before sunset in the counties under a winter storm warning, which is all but Cape May, Atlantic, and Cumberland Counties at this time.
• Heaviest snowfall is forecast between 5 p.m. and 11 p.m. Sunday, and snowfall rates may reach up to 1 per hour at times.
• There may be mixing with sleet after midnight south of I-195.
• Precipitation rates are forecast to decrease after midnight statewide, ending by 5 a.m. to 6 a.m. Monday.
• Snow totals are forecast to range from 5" to 8" for most of the state, with mostly rain in far southeastern NJ.
• The areas of highest uncertainty are counties in central and southern NJ along the I-95 corridor as they are closest to the rain/snow line, therefore sensitive to shifts in the track of the low.
• Northwestern NJ: Snow is forecast to start around 6 p.m. Sunday, ending by 6 a.m. Monday; rain is forecast between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m. Sunday.
• Northeastern NJ: Snow is forecast to start around 6 p.m. Sunday, ending by 6 a.m. Monday; Rain is forecast between 1 PM and 5 PM Sunday.
• Inland Central NJ: Snow is forecast to start around 5 p.m. Sunday, ending by 6 a.m. Monday; rain is forecast between 2 PM and 5 PM Sunday.
• Coastal Central NJ: Snow is forecast to start around 6 p.m. Sunday, ending by 6 a.m. Monday; rain is forecast from 2 p.m. to 5 p.m. Sunday, and 12 a.m. to 2 a.m. Monday; sleet is forecast from 10 PM Sunday through 1 AM Monday.
• Southwestern NJ: Snow is forecast to start around 4 p.m. Sunday, ending by 6 a.m. Monday; rain is forecast from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Sunday; sleet is forecast from 3 PM to 4 PM Sunday, and 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM Monday.
• Southeastern NJ: Sleet and snow are forecast from 5 p.m. Sunday to 5 a.m. Monday; ain is forecast from 11 a.m. Sunday through 3 a.m. Monday.
• Northwestern NJ: 5" to 8" of snow and sleet; Northeastern NJ: 5" to 8" of snow and sleet; Central NJ: 5' to 8" of snow and sleet; Southwestern NJ: 4" to 7" of snow and sleet; southeastern NJ: 1" to 5" of snow and sleet; Cape May County: <1" of snow and sleet
• There is potential for spotty minor flooding associated with the Monday morning high tide along the Atlantic coast and Delaware Bay.
• There is potential for some minor flooding of small creeks and streams Monday: we are monitoring forecasts for the North Branch Rancocas Creek and Millstone River.
• The actual storm track will determine precipitation types and amounts, and any shift in the track could increase or decrease snow amounts, particularly near the rain/snow line (around the I-95 corridor in central and southern counties).
• The statewide range for snowfall is 0" on the low end (far SE NJ) to 9" on the high end (northern NJ), with 5" to 8" as the official NWS forecast for most locations statewide.

Here is what is predicted in the Sunday-Monday storm:

High-end predictions:

Here is the forecast:

• Sunday: Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 41. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
• Sunday night: Snow, possibly mixed with sleet, becoming all snow after 2am. Low around 31. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
• Monday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph.
• Monday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. West wind 6 to 10 mph.