New Jersey Primary On Tuesday: It Matters

New Jerseyans, take notice: There are more reasons than ever for exercising your right to vote on Tuesday.

Yes, in presidential election years, the Democratic and Republican nominations are usually sewn up, and the candidates are eyeing November by now.

But this year will certainly be different - for the Democrats, at least.

That's because no one is expected to have the Democratic race for president locked up before Tuesday, giving the New Jersey Primary perhaps the most significance its had in the past 50 years - or longer.

“For perhaps the first time ever, the New Jersey primary will matter this June, giving the state a rare opportunity to impact the presidential selection process,” said Ashley Koning, assistant director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University.

The only exception may be 2008, the only time in recent history that New Jersey moved its primary to February. Clinton won the New Jersey Primary but eventually lost the Democratic nomination to then-Sen. Barack Obama in a very competitive race.

But unlike 2008, Clinton is expected to clinch the nomination for president and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders if she wins New Jersey on Tuesday.

If the polls are accurate, she may just do that - even though the race has tightened over the past two months.

In a recent Rutgers University-Eagleton poll, Clinton continued to lead Sanders for the nomination, but only by single digits, 51 to 42 percent.

Democratic-leaning independents appeared to be fueling Sanders’ momentum, with just over half of this group choosing the Vermont senator. Confirmed Democrats, on the other hand, firmly supported Clinton, at 57 percent.

“The preferences of unaffiliated voters could be an important factor in the primary,” said Koning. “New Jerseyans who have not yet declared a party affiliation may do so at the polls on primary day, and those who want to switch parties could have done so up until just a few days ago.”

There also appears to be a gender gap that's impacting nationwide Clinton-Sanders polls, and there are signs that it could impact Clinton if she is the Democratic opponent against Donald Trump.

There are signs the discomfort some people—particularly men—have with the thought of a female president could cost Clinton as much as 8 percent of the vote in November, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll.

Male voters who were prompted to consider Clinton’s gender are 24 percent less likely to support her in a match-up against the presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump.

“This was a simple experiment,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Political Science at Fairleigh Dickinson University and director of experimental research for the poll. “Half the people interviewed were posed with a question that prompted thoughts about gender and the other half were not.”

Nevertheless, political observers and television network pundits said they expect the former First Lady to win enough delegates in New Jersey to push her over the top, and lock up the 2,383 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination over Sanders.

Indeed, two other recent New Jersey polls had Clinton ahead by 28 percentage points and 14 percentage points.

Clinton helped her cause by winning the Virgin Islands caucuses on Saturday, and she's expected to win the Puerto Rico Primary on Sunday.

Trump, meanwhile, faces no opposition in the same primary and has clinched the required number of delegates already - even as some New Jersey Republicans continue to oppose his candidacy.

Former New Jersey Gov. Christie Whitman has told reporters this week that Republican voters should use the primary to cast protest votes against Trump. Whitman is a delegate for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who dropped out last month.

Nate Silver, a former New York Times columnist who writes the Five-Thirty-Eight blog, said the first state to completely close its polls on June 7 is New Jersey at 8 p.m.

California, where Clinton has been leading in the majority of polls but Bernie Sanders has been pushing for a win, will close later.

Silver, who has been known for his successful presidential predictions, said New Jersey will likely push Clinton over the top "barring something devastating happening to the Clinton campaign."

That wouldn't be totally out of the question. Two weeks ago, Clinton took heat in a report released by U.S. Inspector General that sharply criticized her handling of personal and profession email during her time as secretary of state.

At the same time, Clinton has a very high unfavorable rating. In the Real Clear Politics average of polling, Clinton has a 37.6 favorable rating and a 55.8 unfavorable rating.

But Clinton appears confident about winning New Jersey, even canceling one of two campaign rallies scheduled in New Jersey last week so she could campaign in the tightening California primary race.

Silver, however, has said that California is not necessary, and broke down how Clinton should lock down the nomination by winning New Jersey:

• By winning the Virgin Islands caucus as well as taking the Puerto Rico Primary on Sunday, Silver expects Clinton to win as many as 34 from both contests. That could leave her about 30 to 40 delegates short of the nomination. According to the Associated Press, she is currently about 70 delegates short.
• Before the Virgin Islands win, Clinton was about 60 delegates short of the 2,383 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination, according to NBC News - a count that includes pledged delegates earned during the primary process, and superdelegates that have pledged to vote for Clinton at the Democratic Convention.

"The demographics-based model has her winning by somewhere in the mid-teens," Silver said. "Unless something crazy happens — and crazy things have found a way of happening in 2016 — Clinton will likely reach 2,383 delegates in New Jersey."

Chris Matthews of MSNBC also has revealed that the major television networks plan to call the Democratic primary for Clinton if she goes over the top in New Jersey.

Sanders, meanwhile, has said he plans to not concede to Clinton even if she goes over the top, saying he plans to persuade the superdelegates - mostly party officials and union members who are not "pledged delegates," which are picked during the primary process - to switch their votes to him.

His reasoning: His recent polling shows he would do better against Trump in the general election than Hillary. But another FDU PublicMind poll says his case falls flat in New Jersey.

Sanders' liberal credentials don't seem to help him with liberals in New Jersey: the same proportion of liberals say that they'll support him in a match-up with Trump (77%) as would support Clinton, according to a March FDU poll.

Similarly, Clinton's advantage in support among non-whites in the primaries doesn't seem to translate into additional support among non-white voters in the general election, as Sanders does just as well as among such voters.

“Just like Trump doesn't poll any worse than a generic Republican, Sanders doesn't do any worse than any other Democrat in New Jersey,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson and an analyst with the PublicMind poll. “Clinton may have an electability argument to make in other states, but there's not one to be found here.”