Heavy Rain, Flash Flooding To Snarl NYC Evening Commute Thursday, Officials Say

NEW YORK CITY — New Yorkers could face a potentially treacherous evening commute Thursday as heavy downpours and thunderstorms threaten to trigger flash flooding across the five boroughs, city officials warned.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch with the worst of the rain expected to hit during the late afternoon and early evening.

The National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center has also placed New York City under a Slight Risk — Level 2 out of 4 — for excessive rainfall Thursday, meaning isolated to scattered flash flooding is possible.

Scattered showers are forecast to begin late Thursday morning before more widespread rain and thunderstorms roll through between about 2 p.m. and 8 p.m., according to city officials.

The heaviest rain is expected between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. — just in time for the evening rush.

"New Yorkers should prepare for heavy rain and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, particularly during the evening commute," Mayor Zohran Mamdani said.

The city has activated its Flash Flood Emergency Plan and is coordinating with the National Weather Service as officials prepare for possible flooding.

Forecasters expect roughly three-quarters of an inch to just over an inch of rain citywide, though neighborhoods caught under stronger thunderstorms could see considerably more.

Localized totals could reach about 1.5 to 1.75 inches, with even higher amounts possible in some spots. Southern portions of the city are currently more likely to see higher rainfall totals, according to NYC Emergency Management.

"Peak hourly rainfall rates could reach around 2 inches with total rainfall amounts expected to be between 1.5 and 2.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible," the National Weather Service forecasters said.

Still, storms are expected to keep moving through the area rather than repeatedly soaking the same neighborhoods, which could help limit the duration of the heaviest rain.

“Thursday's storms could produce very heavy rain over a short period of time, and even localized flooding can quickly create dangerous conditions,” NYC Emergency Management Commissioner Christina Farrell said.

Farrell urged commuters to give themselves extra time and warned New Yorkers not to enter flooded streets, subway stations or other low-lying areas.

Those living in basement apartments should be particularly cautious, officials said.

Residents of basement or other below-grade homes should keep an eye on conditions and be ready to move to a higher floor or safer location before flooding develops. Officials warned residents not to wait until water begins entering their homes to take action.

New Yorkers should also avoid walking, biking or driving through floodwater, which can be deeper than it appears and conceal debris, openings and electrical hazards.

Officials advised residents to keep phones, medical equipment and other essential devices charged, and to check on neighbors, older adults and others who may need assistance.

The storms are expected to taper off after about 8 p.m., with generally dry weather forecast after midnight and into Friday morning.

Here's the latest forecast from the National Weather Service.

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 82. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Thursday night: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11pm, then a chance of showers between 11pm and 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 67. Northeast wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 79. North wind 9 to 11 mph.

Friday night: Showers likely after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Saturday night: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 81.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.

For questions, email Miranda.Levingston@Patch.com.