Hurricane Joaquin Poised to Head Out to Sea, Avoid Direct Hit Of U.S.

Hurricane Joaquin has already caused quite a scare and it has inflicted serious damage to the Bahamas, but it will likely stay far away from the East Coast and Long Island as it turns north, the National Hurricane Center said Friday morning.

“The forecast models continue to indicate a track farther away from the United States East Coast and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states appears to be decreasing,” the NHC said.

“However, there is still uncertainty in how close Joaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape Cod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of the hurricane,” the NHC said.

That’s a big change from Thursday morning when many tracks showed Joaquin directly approaching Long Island early next week.

Joaquin’s new path is certainly welcome news for a region with memories of Hurricane Sandy still fresh in its mind, but Long Island is still going to be dealing with heavy rain, strong winds, coastal flooding and beach erosion over the next several days.

“Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds associated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern states through the weekend,” the NHC said.

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A coastal flood advisory is in effect for Long Island Friday. Minor coastal flooding is possible as tides rise to 1-2 feet above astronomical levels. Similar tidal departures are expected on Saturday and Sunday. The live video below is of Long Beach courtesy of NYBeachCams.com.

As of Friday morning, Joaquin was a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph. It will weaken as it heads north and then will likely veer sharply to the east about halfway up the Eastern Seaboard on Monday.

With earlier tracks for the storm showing a much greater chance of it making landfall on the East Coast, states of emergency were declared in Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland and New Jersey.

New York didn’t followed suit, but Gov. Andrew Cuomo did issue an emergency statement Thursday directing state agencies to “prepare for prolonged heavy rains and tropical storm conditions” in the coming days.

The Long Island forecast from the National Weather Service:

• Friday- Rain. High near 55. Breezy, with a northeast wind 22 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Friday Night- Rain. Low around 48. Breezy, with a northeast wind 23 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• Saturday- Drizzle or light rain, mainly before noon. High near 56. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.
• Saturday Night- A chance of drizzle or light rain. Cloudy, with a low around 53. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Sunday- A chance of drizzle or light rain, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. Windy, with a northeast wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Sunday Night- A slight chance of showers or drizzle before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 20%.