Here’s How Many NY Homes Are At Risk Of Chronic Flooding

A new analysis shows just how many U.S. homes in coastal areas are at risk from chronic flooding due to rising sea levels. The analysis from the Union of Concerned Scientists charts out the risk based on two time frames; the first is the number of homes at risk over the lifespan of a 30-year mortgage and the second is the number of homes at risk by 2100.

The analysis also breaks down the number of homes at risk with a high rate of sea level rise and a moderate rate of sea level rise.

With a high rate of sea level rise, the global average sea level is projected to rise about 2 feet by 2045 and about 6.5 feet by 2100. The analysis predicts that with those levels, 15,486 of today’s New York homes are at risk of becoming chronically inundated by 2045. The houses are worth nearly $8.5 billion and shelter almost 42,000 people.

By 2100, nearly 10 times the number of homes are at risk of becoming chronically swamped by tidal waters. According to the analysis, 143,134 New York homes are at risk of becoming chronically inundated. These homes are worth $98 billion today and are home to over 366,000 people.

Chronic inundation is defined as any area where tidal flooding occurs 26 times per year or about twice a month on average, according to the analysis.

With a moderate rate of sea level rise, fewer number of homes are at risk. By 2035, 4,639 houses worth $2.8 billion and home to over 12,000 people are at risk. By 2100, 68,491 homes worth more than $42.5 billion that are home to over 179,000 people are at risk of repeated flooding.

Most of those homes would be on Long Island, and many would be in New York City, too.

The analysis says with a moderate rate of sea level rise, the global average sea level is projected to rise about 1 foot by 2035 and about 4 feet by 2100.

The authors of the report also identify the number of homes that could be saved if the world takes aggressive action on climate change. Their analysis indicates that more than 2 million of today’s homes, including a tens of thousands on the New York coast, could be saved.

Here’s what scientists say the danger of homes at risk of flooding are:

• Steep financial losses to homeowners and commercial property owners
• Declining property values could erode the local tax base
• Mortgages on homes at risk are inherently riskier and homeowners may find themselves with mortgages that exceed their home values

The scientists make a number of recommendations to communities, states, businesses and the federal government to mitigate the problem, including reauthorizing and reforming the National Flood Insurance Program. They also called on state and local policy makers to communicate flood risks to coastal communities. (You can see the full list of recommendations here.)

Researchers used data from Zillow and sea level rise scenarios developed by NOAA. (You can see the full methodology here.)

Read the full analysis from the Union of Concerned Scientists here.

Photo: Shutterstock