Prepare Now For Hurricane Joaquin

UPDATE 12 p.m. Thursday: Hurricane Joaquin on Very Uncertain Path Toward Long Island

Parts of the East Coast could be under a hurricane watch by Thursday evening as Hurricane Joaquin continues to strengthen in the Atlantic.

The latest National Hurricane Center track for the storm has shifted a bit east, lessening the chance of a direct hit to the mid-Atlantic, but increasing the probability that the storm strikes the Jersey Shore as a tropical storm with winds of 39-73 mph late Monday or early Tuesday.

In New York, officials are urging residents to begin to prepare for the storm now. Even if Long Island avoids a direct hit, Joaquin will likely bring strong winds, heavy rain and coastal flooding to an already rain-soaked region.

“The state is doing its part to make sure we are ready to support our local partners quickly, however it all starts at home,” said John Melville, commissioner of the NYS Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Services. “Having emergency supplies on hand such as flashlights and batteries, and water and canned goods is essential.”

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As of 8 a.m. Thursday, Joaquin was churning near the Bahamas with sustained winds of 120 mph. It is expected to take a turn north by Friday, when its wind speeds will likely reach 140 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.

“At this venture, people along the coast from the Carolinas to southern New England should be prepared for the possibility of hurricane conditions with everything from inland to coastal flooding and strong winds,” according to AccuWeather.com.

If Joaquin stays on its projected path, it would near the tip of North Carolina with winds of up to 90 mph on Monday. A state of emergency has already been declared in Virginia.

The National Hurricane Center, however, say its confidence in the storm’s track after 72 hours remains low ”as there have been some large changes in the model guidance overnight. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and the possibility of a hurricane landfall in the Carolinas still cannot be ruled out.”

AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski reports that Joaquin is not likely to become as intense as Sandy.

The Weather Channel, too, points out that Joaquin is smaller than Sandy was at this stage.

But even if Joaquin never makes landfall on the East Coast, meteorologists agree that the hurricane and its winds — combined with various other storm systems moving through the Long Island area this week — will cause significant urban and coastal flooding.

A coastal flood advisory has been issued for Long Island from 6 a.m. Thursday until 6 a.m. Friday. On Friday, a coastal flood watch will be in effect from 6 a.m. until 6 p.m.

That wet weather “could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the hurricane,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Officials in Nassau and Suffolk say now is the time for residents to begin preparing for Joaquin.

“Superstorm Sandy taught us that given our location as an island, we are vulnerable to the Atlantic Ocean and susceptible to the powerful and destructive nature of hurricanes and tropical storms such as Joaquin,” Nassau County Executive Mangano said. “It is critical that residents be prepared for and take all warnings seriously.”

Nassau’s Office of Emergency Management has begun implementing its 120-hour plan should the storm approach the area and vital supplies are now stationed in communities across the county, Mangano said.

Suffolk County Executive Steve Bellone on Wednesday directed the Suffolk County Fire Rescue and Emergency Services to open the county’s Emergency Operations Center with personnel tasked to monitor the hurricane and coordinate preparedness efforts with local fire departments and emergency service providers.

“It is still unclear what type of impact this storm will have on our region however, at this point it appears heavy rain and some winds throughout the next five days are likely,” Bellone said on his Facebook page. “As we learned with Superstorm Sandy, it is better to be overly cautious and to have a plan in place.”

Suffolk residents can signup to receive Suffolk County CodeRED Emergency Notifications and find information on hurricane preparedness through the Suffolk County Office of Emergency Management here.

Nassau residents should familiarize themselves with evacuation routes and secure their property in the event of a hurricane, Mangano said. To review coastal evacuation areas in Nassau, evacuation routes or learn additional hurricane preparedness information, visit the Nassau County Office of Emergency Management website here.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo is urging New Yorkers to take the following actions:

• Know your weather terms – A flash flood “watch” indicates flash flooding or flooding is possible within the designated watch area. When a watch is issued, be alert and ready to take action. A flash flood “warning” means flash flooding or flooding has been reported or is imminent. You should take necessary precautions and actions at once.
• Stock up on emergency supplies, including non-perishable food and water, to last for more than 72 hours or three days.
• Know how to contact all family members at all times. Identify an out-of-town friend or family member to be the “emergency family contact” and make sure all family members know that number.
• Designate a family emergency meeting point – a familiar location where the family can meet in case the home is inaccessible.
• Prepare an emergency phone list of people and organizations that may need to be called, including schools, doctors, child/senior care providers, and insurance agents.
• Know the hurricane / storm risks in your area, including storm surge history.
• Learn about your community’s warning signals and evacuation plans.
• Start thinking about where to relocate your pets during a storm.
• Stock up on prescribed medicines and prepare supplies for persons with special needs such as children, the elderly, and infirm.
• Check on neighbors to ensure they are aware of the potential danger and what they need to do to prepare for the storm.