Joaquin Becomes a Hurricane, Threat to Long Island Increasing

UPDATE 12 p.m. Thursday: Hurricane Joaquin on Very Uncertain Path Toward Long Island

Wednesday 6 p.m. update: Prepare Now For Hurricane Joaquin

Original story:

More than 12,000 Long Islanders were without power at one point Wednesday morning following heavy rain overnight and a tropical storm that’s expected to head toward Long Island has become a hurricane, the National Weather Service said.

As of 2 p.m. PSEG Long Island had restored most power outages, with just 850 remaining across the island.

Long Island is under a hazardous weather outlook for the rest of the week as multiple rounds of heavy rain target the region and forecasters continue to closely watch Joaquin, which officially became a hurricane Wednesday morning.

Joaquin’s maximum sustained wind speed increased to 85 miles per hour on Wednesday afternoon and the storm could pack winds as high as 90 to 100 mph once it approaches the East Coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm could reach the Long Island-area by Monday, but the National Hurricane Center said: “A wide range of outcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane along the U.S. East Coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from the coast. It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.”

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Hurricane Joaquin was spinning Wednesday toward the Bahamas, but the National Weather Service expects it to cut north Friday.

The National Weather Service has issued its first warning in weeks, saying Joaquin is expected to move northward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. Depending on the track, another round of potential heavy rainful may result in flooding.

Initial projections had the storm touching the Southeast, but that forecast was later changed to show its path pointed toward the Eastern tip of North Carolina by Sunday afternoon.

The National Hurricane Center projects the storm could near the Jersey Shore by 8 a.m. Monday.

“Consensus has rapidly formed that tropical weather impact risk has escalated sharply, and is now abnormally high,” Gary Szatkowski, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in New Jersey, wrote on his Twitter account.

“While the situation is not likely to become another Sandy, Irene or Isabelle, coastal flooding is a significant threat from the Carolinas to Maine,” according to AccuWeather.com.

The Weather Channel described Joaquin as a “difficult forecast,” with four different weather patterns making life tough for forecasters.

Here are the current elements influencing the storm, according to the Weather Channel:

• A cold front near the East Coast
• Remnants of Tropical Storm Ida in the Southeast Atlantic
• High pressure over the North Atlantic
• Low pressure approaching the Southeast

“Joaquin’s future depends critically on the position and relative strength of those players,” the Weather Channel says. “Not to mention its own strength, which is currently being limited by strong wind shear that’s keeping most of its thunderstorm activity south of its center of circulation.”

One thing is clear: Joaquin will need to be closely watched over the next several days.

Brian McNoldy, a tropical weather expert, tweeted: “Tuesday night’s model guidance continues to suggest that #Joaquin could pose serious threat to US east coast.”

Even if Joaquin doesn’t strike the coast, it will still have noticeable weather effects.

“Regardless of the ultimate outcome of Joaquin’s path, portions of the East Coast will still see multiple impacts from the evolving large-scale weather pattern, including flooding rainfall, gusty winds, high surf, beach erosion and some coastal flooding,” the Weather Channel says.

Nassau County Executive Ed Mangano urged Long Islanders to prepare now for any potential impacts by Joaquin by updating or developing a family emergency plan, an emergency go-kit and a family and friends sheltering plan.

The Nassau County Office of Emergency Management has begun implementing its 120-hour plan should Joaquin approach Nassau, Mangano said.

“Superstorm Sandy taught us that given our location as an island, we are vulnerable to the Atlantic Ocean and susceptible to the powerful and destructive nature of hurricanes and tropical storms such as Joaquin,” Mangano said. “It is critical that residents be prepared for and take all warnings seriously.”

Reporting by Marc Torrence

Image: National Weather Service