COVID-19 Outlook Optimistic In PA As Fall Arrives: Health Experts

PENNSYLVANIA — Communities in Pennsylvania and much of the Northeast could be approaching the peak of COVID-19 case incidences in this latest surge of the virus, even as the cooler weather arrives, according to projections by some health experts.

The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia's PolicyLab says that the rising vaccination rate and population immunity due to previous infection are working to curb further increases, and its latest forecast paints an optimistic view of the month to come.

"This week we can all exhale a bit as the country appears to round a corner," the Lab said in its latest brief issued by three researchers, David Rubin, Jing Huang and Brian Fisher. "These communities can find optimism for a coming new year, when even greater flexibility will return, and when public health restrictions will hopefully continue their retreat back to the background of our lives."

The Lab does advise that coming gatherings in the fall such as Halloween and Thanksgiving "will, at the very least, prolong the country’s recovery." However, as the researchers have been saying for some time, it appears unlikely that this fall will see case numbers anywhere near the surge that hit the region and country last fall.

In Pennsylvania, numbers have remained high but somewhat steady for weeks. The total number of new cases decreased slightly over the most recently tracked seven-day period, from 25,791 to 25,555. While those numbers are still elevated — and the state's positivity rate still hovers around 9 percent, at 9.1 — the curve has ceased its sharp spike from the past several months.

That trend seems poised to continue. Specifically, PolicyLab's forecasting tool shows that this flattening of the curve will continue for the next month.

The weekly number of cases per 100,000 residents, which currently sits at 322, will be at 316 at the end of the month, according to CHOP's model.

Many of the sharpest decreases will be in the most populated counties in the state, the model shows, with numbers returning to mid-to-late-August levels, in Philadelphia and Montgomery counties.

Rural areas outside of major northeastern cities, including west of Philadelphia, "demonstrate much higher case incidence than their more crowded adjacent metropolitan areas," the Lab notes. "However, like most of the country, our forecasts project that these more rural areas are reaching peak case incidence and beginning to stabilize."

Officials warn that vaccinating children is the next priority, as children still ineligible to receive shots remain an "important potential reservoir for continued transmission."

Pennsylvania recently announced a milestone in its vaccination efforts, as 85 percent of the population age 18 and over has received at least one dose.