'Encouraging' Signs As PA's COVID Metrics Continue To Tick Down

PENNSYLVANIA — As Pennsylvanians braced themselves for a bizarre holiday season amid the pandemic, the state continued to see its coronavirus statistics trend in the right direction.

All six of the metrics tracked by the Department of State's Early Warning Monitoring System Dashboard either decreased from the week of Dec. 25 through Dec. 31, the period for which the most recent data is available.

That includes the percent positivity rate, which decreased only fractionally to hold at 15 percent.

"Although the decrease in our statewide positivity rate is small, it is still encouraging," Gov. Tom Wolf said Monday. "The sacrifices Pennsylvanians took over the holidays to celebrate differently than usual and with people inside your household are signs of our continued resilience and drive to fight against COVID-19."

That overall decreased positivity rate came despite increases in certain areas, which local officials attributed to a simple set of factors: less people get tested over the holidays, and of the people who do get tested, they're likely to have a good reason.

That was the case in Montgomery County, according to Commissioner Val Arkoosh, who said that the county saw a positivity rate of more than 23 percent on Christmas Day. However, only 300 people were tested in the county that day, far fewer than usual.

"I'm presuming most of the people that got tested that day got tested because they weren't feeling well," Arkoosh said last week. "So I wouldn't read too much into that one-day blip."

All other metrics across the state showed more marked improvement over the holiday week.

That includes another major drop in the overall case numbers. The state saw 40,407 new cases over that seven-day period, down from 48,883 the week before. Numbers had fallen by more than 10,000 the week before that.

Similarly, the incidence rate per 100,000 residents has fallen steadily in recent weeks from 453 to 373 and finally to 315.

There are encouraging signs in the state's healthcare system too, as hundreds of thousands of doses of coronavirus vaccine are administered to hospital workers and other frontline healthcare workers. While many hospital systems remain overwhelmed, the average daily number of COVID-19 hospitalizations in the state has dropped to 5,896, from 6,080 the week previous.

Average daily number of patients on ventilators has fallen to 713 from 744, and the percentage of emergency room visits due to COVID-19 symptoms also trickled down slightly from 1.3 percent to 1.2 percent.

While metrics are heading in the right direction, the surge still leaves many communities around Pennsylvania vulnerable.

Statewide, 21 counties still have a percent positivity rate over 20 percent. All 67 counties are in the "substantial" transmission category, the highest level of transmission. The state recommends that schools in "substantial" transmission areas hold all classes remotely. Most counties have been in this category since mid-November; all counties have been in it since the week ending Dec. 11.