Montco's Positivity Rate Rises As Most Metrics Drop: Here's Why

MONTGOMERY COUNTY, PA — The latest available statistics from the Pennsylvania Department of Health show that Montgomery County is, for the most part, continuing to trend in the right direction as the community slowly but surely works to suppress the pandemic's spread.

But for anyone tracking the local metrics closely, there was one notable blip in the most recent data, covering the week from Dec. 25 to Dec. 31: the percent positivity rate has shot back up to 11.4 percent, up nearly a point from 10.5 percent the week previous.

That's at least in part due to the aberration in testing on Christmas Day and around the holidays. On Christmas Day, the county's single day positivity rate was over 23 percent. Only 300 people were tested that day, officials said.

"I'm presuming most of the people that got tested that day got tested because they weren't feeling well," Montgomery County Commissioner Val Arkoosh said. "So I wouldn't read too much into that one-day blip."

Since fewer people were tested over the holidays, and those who did choose to get tested were likely feeling symptoms, the increased rate makes sense, authorities said.

The state's Early Warning Monitoring System Dashboard tracked that positivity rate at 11.9 percent two weeks ago, so overall, the holiday blip has not thrown the metrics too far off course.

Statewide, the percent positivity rate also did not drop, maintaining at 15 percent, the same place it was at last week.

Supporting the notion that the holiday week positivity rate should be taken with a grain of salt are the rest of the county's metrics tracked by the state. Montgomery County saw steady improvements in nearly every other category.

The overall number of cases fell once again, down to 2,319. That's a thousand less than what was reported three weeks ago, at 3,307. Two weeks ago was 3,011 and last week was 2,468.

Similarly, the incidence rate per 100,000 continues to drop, falling to 279 this week, down from 297 and 365 in the two weeks previous.

The average number of daily hospitalizations fell for the second straight week, down to 426. Last week's decrease from 526 to 449 was the first time in months the county saw measurable improvement in this category, as officials have continued to express concerns about overloaded emergency rooms.

Speaking of emergency rooms: that is another metric that ticked up last week. The percentage of all emergency room visits in the county due to COVID-19 symptoms was up to 1.1 percent, from 0.9 percent the week previous.

Similarly, the average daily number of COVID-19 patients on ventilators rose from 49.3 to 59.

These last two metrics were statistics which improved statewide in Pennsylvania over the holiday week, indicating that though the virus is slowly being suppressed in the community, Montgomery County hospitals continue to face serious challenges.