Phillies Vs. Diamondbacks NLCS Preview: Schedule, Matchup, Predictions

PHILADELPHIA, PA — When the Atlanta Braves historic 2023 season was summarily ended by the Phillies in south Philadelphia last week, the zeitgeist in red and white pinstripes did not need to leave its den.

Instead, for just the second time in two Red Octobers, the Phillies will have home field advantage. The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming into town to start off the National League Championship Series with two nights in a row of "four hours in hell."

See also: 'Atta Boy Harper' Braves Insult Becomes Phillies Rallying Cry, T-Shirt

Here's what to know ahead of the upcoming battle, with the Phillies just four wins away from a second straight National League pennant and World Series berth.

Schedule

Game 1: Monday, Oct. 16 at 8:07 p.m., in Philadelphia

Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 17 at 8:07 p.m., in Philadelphia

Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 19 at 5:07 p.m., in Phoenix

Game 4: Friday, Oct. 20 at 8:07 p.m., in Phoenix

Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 21 at 8:07 p.m., in Phoenix (if neccessary)

Game 6: Monday, Oct. 23 at 5:07 p.m., in Philadelphia (if neccessary)

Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 24 at 8:07 p.m., in Philadelphia (if neccessary)

How they got here

The Phillies finished up the regular season at 90-72, earning the first Wild Card spot and the 4th overall seed in the National League.

They swept the Marlins 2-0 in the Wild Card series, and then beat the World Series favorite Braves 3-1 in one of the most widely watched, dramatic Division Series matchups in years. It mirrors their run from a year ago, when they swept the Cardinals in Wild Card and took down another heavily favored Atlanta team 3-1 in the NLDS.

The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, went 84-78 and snuck into the postseason in the final days of the year, much like the Phillies last year. They beat the Brewers two games in a row in Milwaukee, and then swept out the heavily favored Dodgers in a historic embarassment in Los Angeles.

The two teams have never met in the postseason. Arizona is in their first postseason since 2017. They've been to just one World Series, which they won in dramatic walk-off fashion against the New York Yankees in 2001.

History

The Phillies won the 7-game season series this year, 4-3. Five of those seven games were decided by just one run, though the Phillies did run up a 15-3 blowout over Arizona back in June.

There is one player in this series who was in the 2008 World Series, the last time the Phillies won a championship. Highly decorated veteran Evan Longoria, who was a fledgling breakout star on the '08 Tampa Bay Rays, is on Arizona's roster. The 38-year-old saw part time action this year. The last Phillie from the 2008 team to retire was Cole Hamels, who officially hung up his spikes this past summer.

Pitching matchups

For the Phillies, they have already announced ace Zack Wheeler as the starter for Game 1. It's all but certain that Aaron Nola will start Game 2 and Ranger Suarez will start Game 3.

The interesting part will be Game 4. The Phillies have both Cristopher Sanchez and Taijuan Walker at the ready. Walker has the longer and more proven track record, but he struggled to close out the year and Sanchez, though less proven, had a better 2023 by any measure. It's possible the two could share duties as well. They are this team's version of Noah Syndergaard and Bailey Falter on the 2022 roster, who each pitched in one game in the NLCS and World Series.

The Diamondbacks have two very good starters in Zac Gallen (Game 1, 3.47 regular season ERA) and Merrill Kelly (Game 2, 3.29 ERA). Gallen, who grew up in Phillies territory in Somerton, New Jersey, some 15 miles from Citizens Bank Park, has grown into one of the best pitchers in baseball and will gain Cy Young votes this fall.

The Phillies have a decisive advantage over the Dbacks when it comes to pitching depth, however. Arizona will likely roll out Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson for Games 3 and 4, both of whom owned ERAs over 5.00 during the regular season. Pfaadt did, however, throw very well in his NLDS Game 3 start against Los Angeles.

The Phillies also have a huge advantage over the Arizona bullpen, which was 19th overall in regular season ERA. The Phillies team ERA of 4.03 was also vastly superior to Arizona's 4.48.

A huge key to the series will be how quickly the Phillies can get to Arizona's bullpen in the Gallen and Kelly games. Each lasted about 6 innings in their solid, but not quite dominant, regular season starts against Philly. That's good, but the Diamondbacks will need them to be great to hold off a potent Phillies offense that is built for Red October. If Gallen and Kelly are as dominant as they can be, the Diamondbacks have the potential to make this a long series for the Phillies, as that pair could be rested to pitch Games 5 and 6 on short rest. But if they're anything short of brilliant, the Phillies will feast on their relief corps and send Arizona packing in short order.

Positional breakdown

The Diamondbacks have an exciting, dynamic young offense headlined by a future perennial MVP candidate (and this year's Rookie of the Year shoe-in) Corbin Carroll. Carroll hit 25 homers and stole 54 bases this year, flashing a Ronald Acuna Jr.-like speed and power combo.

The Diamondbacks aren't the Braves, but they have a slew of hard hitting threats. After Carroll, first baseman Christian Walker is their big power threat, hitting 33 bombs on the year. Catcher Gabriel Moreno has been another breakout youngster this season, and second baseman Ketel Marte is a Trea Turner-esque player when he's on his game.

However hot the Diamondbacks may be, it bears repeating again and again that the Phillies pitching staff just shut down arguably the greatest offense of all time in Atlanta. The likes of Acuna, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Marcel Ozuna were held to 9 runs in 4 games (and 4 runs in 3 of those games). If Philly pitches like that again, it's hard to see Arizona making leeway where Atlanta couldn't.

Predictions

The Diamondbacks are able to take one of two games in Philly behind stellar starts from their aces, but their 3-4 starters and bullpen are unable to hold back the dam the rest of the way. The Phillies slug their way to their second straight World Series 4 games to 1.

Odds

The Phillies now have the second best odds to win the World Series at plus 195, trailing only the Texas Rangers at plus 175, according to Fanduel Sportsbook.

They're heavily favored to beat the Diamondbacks, at minus 178. It's just the second time they've been favored to win any postseason series in the past two years after this year's Wild Card Series with the Marlins.

What's next

The winner of the National League pennant will go on to face the American League champion, either the Astros or the Rangers. If it's a Phillies vs. Astros World Series, it'll mark the first time World Series rematch has been played in consecutive years since the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers in 1977 and 1978.

Previous coverage of Red October 2023

Nick Castellanos Makes Baseball History As Phillies Topple Braves

It's Not An Upset: How The Phillies Are Just Better Than The Braves

'Atta Boy Harper' Braves Insult Becomes Phillies Rallying Cry, T-Shirt

Bryson Stott's Epic Grand Slam Helps Phillies Sweep Marlins

Phillies Clinch Playoff Berth With Walk-Off Hit In Extra Innings