See Phillies Playoff Chances Following Red-Hot Stretch

PHILADELPHIA, PA — If a Phillies fan was told in April that manager Joe Girardi would be fired, Bryce Harper and Jean Segura would miss months to injury, Didi Gregorious, Mickey Moniak, Adam Haseley would essentially be given up on, Bryson Stott would underperform, Corey Knebel would lose the closer's job, and Nick Castellanos would suffer a career-worst year, you'd likely assume the Phillies would be in dire straits.

What might seem impossible then has become today's reality: the Phillies are on pace for 90 wins, 12 games over .500 and comfortably in the driver's seat of a Wild Card spot. They're weeks away from ending an 11 year playoff drought, the longest in the National League. And their bullpen, the Howard's heel that sunk their hopes summer after summer since their rebuild began, is suddenly among the best in the majors.

All that has resulted in a 74.9 percent chance to reach the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. PECOTA's projections, the other widely recognized statistical forecasting system, is even more bullish on the Fightins, giving them a 79.4 percent chance.

MLB playoffs are a bit different this year: six teams now make the postseason in each league. The top two seeds in each league get a first round bye, and the other four play a best of 3 game series. The do or die, one-game Wild Card playoff is out.

The Phillies currently sit in third in the NL East, and they trail the first place New York Mets by 10 games. But they currently have the 4th best record in the National League (and 6th best in all of MLB), and they're only three games behind the Atlanta Braves, who currently hold the first Wild Card slot. If the Phillies could catch the Braves, they'd have home field advantage in that 3 game series.

It's far from impossible. The Phillies have a favorable schedule the rest of the way out; in fact, they only play one team (the Mets) with a winning record until mid-September.

Since June 1, when the Phillies fired Girardi and Rob Thomson took over as the interim manager, the Phillies have the third best record in MLB, trailing only the Los Angeles Dodgers and Braves.

Not to mention, their roster is only improving. Segura is back from injury, and Harper, who appears to have made an immaculate recovery, is expected back by the end of the August. At the trade deadline, the team added former Mets ace Noah Syndergaard to boost its rotation, and now has a bonafide star defensive center fielder in Brandon Marsh.

After a night off Monday, the Phillies return to action Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park, hosting the Miami Marlins for a three game set. Ace Zack Wheeler will take the mound against Marlins groundball machine Braxton Garrett.