Coronavirus: Pittsburgh Hospitals Expected To Have Bed Shortages

PITTSBURGH, PA - Pittsburgh-area hospitals will be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients under the most likely infection rate scenarios, according to a just-released ProPublica report based on data from the Harvard Global Health Institute.

The data in the report dramatically underscores the words of Allegheny County Health Department Director Debra Bogen, who has warned that a critical bed shortage in southwestern Pennsylvania might be just weeks away.

The ProPublica study’s numbers are stark. Even in what experts call a moderate rate of infection, Pittsburgh-area hospitals would fall dramatically short in meeting the need for beds over the next six to 12 months.

As of 2018, Pittsburgh had 8,130 total hospital beds, of which about 66% were occupied, potentially leaving only 2,740 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 1,080 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The Pittsburgh region has a population of about 2.9 million residents; 19 percent are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In the moderate scenario, in which 40 percent of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Pittsburgh would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.

It is estimated that about 8 percent of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40 percent of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Pittsburgh, PA would receive an estimated 197,000 coronavirus patients.

The influx of patients would require 6,570 beds over 12 months, which is 2.4 times times the number of available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the Pittsburgh region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 420 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 3.4 times times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

“We estimate that tens of thousands of people will need intensive care and breathing support to survive and recover,” Bogen said. “Our world-class hospitals can only handle a small portion of this number at any one time. This is a very grave situation.”

To avert a potentially catastrophic situation,Bogen advised continuing to take aggressive actions to dramatically slow the spread of the virus in the region. Those actions include continued social distancing and the continued closure of non-essential businesses.

“We have seen that taking strong action early, as in South Korea and the rest of China, the death rate is much, much lower,” Bogen said. We need to take very strong action immediately to save lives.”

Read the entire ProPublica report here.