Phillies Spring Training 2016 Begins: Four Things To Watch

CLEARWATER, FL -- Pitchers and catchers reported to spring training for the Phillies this week, and the rest of the crew won’t be far behind.

The squad gathering at Bright House Field in Clearwater is very different from any Phillies team that’s gathered there in over a decade. There is no Chase Utley, no Jimmy Rollins, no Cole Hamels. In fact, there are only a small handful of players on the team that are over 30. And from the 2008 team that won the World Series, only Carlos Ruiz and Ryan Howard remain.

2016 is undoubtedly a very different kind of year for the Phillies. They are in the second full year of a clear rebuild, but by some accounts, they may have already hit rock bottom with their 63-win season last year. A flurry of trades has thoroughly retooled their farm system, which is now ranked among the best in the National League. 

Here are four things to keep an eye on in the coming weeks as the team prepares for Opening Day 2016:

Rotation Battle

Last year, the Phillies relied on a mixed group of journeymen and rookies that collectively put up one of the worst ERA’s in baseball. This year’s rotation will be entirely different.

It’s not clear who Phillies manager Pete Mackanin will give the ball to on Opening Day. Aaron Nola, the Phils’ 2014 first round draft pick, or Jerad Eickhoff, acquired in the Cole Hamels deal with the Rangers at the trade deadline, are both possibilities, but neither has been on an Opening Day roster before. They are undoubtedly the future of the Phillies rotation, but spring training could determine their place in the rotation - ahead of, or behind, a pair of veterans.

That pair would be offseason acquisitions Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton. They are not aces. But Hellickson, 28, did win Rookie of the Year in 2011, and holds a lifetime ERA under 4.00. Morton, 32, a New Jersey native, is more of an innings-eating type. But he is a reliable option at the back of the rotation and could put up similar numbers to Aaron Harang, one of the Phils’ workhorses in 2015.

After those four, the rotation is less clear. However, if the team decides he is ready to start the season in the majors, Vincent Velasquez, acquired from the Houston Astros in the Ken Giles deal, could be a very impactful player. Rated as one of MLB.com’s top prospects headed in 2015, he held a 4.03 ERA through seven starts with the Astros last season. At 23, he has a lot of room to improve, and scouts say he will. If all goes well, he could potentially pitch his way into the third or fourth spot in the rotation by the summer.

Adam Morgan, David Buchanan, Brett Oberholtzer, and Mark Appel (see below) could all compete for spots in the rotation as well.

Prediction: Opening Day starter is Nola, to be followed by Eickhoff, Velasquez, Hellickson, and Morton as the season progresses.

Who Will Catch Where

The Phillies have five catchers coming into spring training that could be starters for the big league club at some point in 2016: Ruiz, Cameron Rupp, JP Arencibia, Jorge Alfaro, and Andrew Knapp.

Rupp’s defense has always been there, and his bat improved as the season progressed in 2015. Ruiz is another year older but hit for a respectable average again in 2015.

Knapp is a farm product who broke out at the plate in a big way last year. Alfaro was acquired in the Hamels trade and has been consistently heralded as a top prospect, but missed last year due to injury. Arencibia was signed to a minor league contract and will probably be a backup in the short term should Rupp or Ruiz become injured.

The team has said that Knapp and Alfaro will break probably camp with separate minor league assignments to give them both maximum playing time. Knapp has played some first base and but seems a natural behind the plate. Alfaro has experience in the outfield as well.

Prediction: Rupp will get the bulk of the starts for the Phillies, with Ruiz as a backup, playing around a third of the time. Knapp will go to Triple-A and could get a late season call up to Philadephia. Alfaro will head to Double-A and will continue to get reps in the outfield throughout the season.

Outfield Spots

The Phillies outfield has suddenly become crowded, even after losing Ben Revere and Domonic Brown.

Odubel Herrera has center field locked down, but the corners are up for grabs, and depending on spring performances, could be filled by a platoon of Aaron Altherr, Cody Asche, Peter Bourjos, Tyler Goeddel, Darin Ruf, and Darnell Sweeney.

Altherr, a farm product, is a five tool player that flashed hints of offensive and defensive brilliance at the end of 2015. And Bourjos, acquired in the offseason, has always been known for his stellar defense but has never had the consistent playing time needed to prove his bat. Those two are the favorites heading into the spring.

Mackanin told the Morning Call that Asche would be getting reps at third base and at first base, so it’s possible he’ll be filling a super utility role throughout the year. Sweeney, meanwhile, has extensive second base experience, and could be shuffled around to platoon with middle infielders Cesar Hernandez and Freddy Galvis. Ruf is more likely to see at-bats on Ryan Howard’s off days, but he also has outfield experience.

Goeddel is the Phils’ Rule 5 Draft Pick. The spring will likely be very telling. Herrera was a Rule 5 pick in 2015 and the Phils knew by the end of the spring that he was going to be an everyday player.

Prediction: Herrera (CF) and Altherr (LF) are regulars, while Sweeney (a switch hitter) and Bourjos platoon.

All of this could be made irrelevant, however, if one or both of outfield prospects Nick Williams and Roman Quinn are called to the majors mid-season. Which leads to the final point.

Timeline for Key Prospects

What’s most exciting about the Phillies in 2016 is not their highly rated farm system; it’s the fact that so much of that farm system is on the brink of joining the big club.

As spring training progresses, the performance of players will indicate where they stand heading into the year, but so too will Mackanin’s decisions on who to give the most playing time.

Here are five of the top prospects that could impact the Phillies in 2016, in order of likelihood:

1. J.P. Crawford is the number 5 rated prospect in all of baseball, according to MLB.com, and the growing consensus is that he will join the Phillies at some point in 2016. Call up date: June.
2. Mark Appel is 24 and has little left to prove in the minor leagues. Although the former number one overall draft pick, acquired from the Astros in the Giles trade, has seen his stock fall as he has failed to dominate the minors the way he did the collegiate ranks, scouts remain enamored with his pitches. Control seems to be his biggest issue. If he improves there, he could still be an ace. Call up date: May.
3. Roman Quinn is a Ben Revere archetype. He was hampered by injury in 2015 but has put up great contact numbers through the minor leagues and has incredible speed. He is blocked by Herrera in center, but the Phils could give him a chance to prove himself in the crowded outfield given an injury or a poor performance. Call up date: June.
4. Jake Thompson is considered the highest ceiling pitcher the Phils acquired in the Hamels deal. Eickhoff has quickly proved himself. But with Hellickson and Morton signed to one year deals and possible deadline fodder, the Phillies plan with Thompson seems pretty clear. Call up date: August..
5. Nick Williams was the centerpiece of the Hamels trade last summer and looks to be the team’s right fielder of the future. It’s doubtful he would be called up in the middle of the season unless he could be given a starting role. A few cuts at the end of the year are more likely, with a full time move to Philly in 2017. Call up date: September.

The Phillies open the 2016 season in Cincinnati against the Reds on Monday, April 4. Their home opener is Monday, April 11, when they host the San Diego Padres.

For ticket and schedule information, see here.

Image of Aaron Nola via Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr - Originally posted to Flickr as “Aaron Nola faces Mets: 9/2/2015”, CC BY 2.0.