As summer comes to an end and pumpkin spice offerings hit store shelves, fall is just around the corner. But while the calendar is about to turn, Rhode Island's weather may not be ready to follow suit.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center has released its three-month, seasonal weather outlook for fall. The Northeast, including all of Rhode Island, has a 33% to 40% chance of above-normal temperatures in September, October and November.
In its seasonal precipitation outlook, the northern half of Rhode Island has a 33% to 40% chance of below-normal precipitation, while the southern half has equal chances of above-, near- or below-normal precipitation.
But that doesn't necessarily mean Rhode Island residents should expect three straight months of unusually warm weather.
Scott Handel, lead meteorologist at the Climate Prediction Center, said the outlook represents only a "modest tilt" toward warmer-than-normal conditions over the three-month period and doesn't predict individual variations within the season.
The precipitation outlook is similarly uncertain.
This summer's periods of heavy rainfall aren't expected to have a significant effect on the fall outlook, according to Handel. While heavy rain can increase soil moisture and influence temperature and precipitation patterns, particularly during the summer, that influence typically weakens as fall progresses.
A particularly strong El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean has made headlines, and meteorologists are keeping an eye on the climatological pattern as it continues to develop.
But its influence on Rhode Island's weather is typically limited during the fall.
Historically, El Niño years have shown little temperature signal across Rhode Island and the Northeast during the fall, Handel said. There is some tendency toward drier conditions across much of New England, but that signal is also relatively weak.
The climate pattern could become more important as Rhode Island heads into winter.
Handel said El Niño typically has a stronger influence on winter weather, and the Climate Prediction Center's outlook shows increasing chances for above-normal temperatures in Rhode Island this winter. The precipitation outlook also shifts toward wetter conditions as the season progresses, with El Niño tending to favor an East Coast storm track.
Still, seasonal forecasting — particularly in the fall — comes with plenty of uncertainty.
"The Fall season is amongst the most challenging seasons to predict," Handel said.
Unlike a short-term weather forecast, a three-month seasonal outlook isn't designed to predict when Rhode Island will see its first frost, a stretch of warm October afternoons or a particularly rainy week. Instead, it shows which conditions are more likely when averaged across the season as a whole.
"The right way to interpret a three month outlook is as an early warning as to what the most likely scenario is in the months ahead for long term planning," Handel said.
So, while the odds currently tilt toward a warmer fall overall, Rhode Island residents shouldn't rule out plenty of crisp mornings and chilly stretches along the way.
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