Should the US wait to attack ISIS?

In the aftermath of the recent Islamic State aggression in the Middle East, we have seen renewed energy about intervening in the region. It may seem unacceptable that we simply do nothing in the face of such an enemy. However, if we want a long term strategy that will prevent the next Islamic threat, standing by may be our best course of action.

In 2003 and 2011 the US had two bench mark years in its Middle Eastern foreign policy. In 2003 the US took a unilateral and active role in establishing a new political order in the region. In 2011 the US did nothing while other actors did the same. The net result of 2003 and 2011 is that the US is in a worse position relative to pre-2003.

As a result of the instability created by the Arab Spring, the US has seen its influence in the region diminish to almost nil. Some of the regimes that were once allies were toppled, while others no longer trust the US to support them when needed.

The point is that since 2011 there is a new Middle East, and it doesn’t include America. The hopes that were sprung from the Arab Spring of peace and democracy have led to weak leadership in the region that has been easily dealt with by Islamic fundamentalism.

The Islamic State has provided the US with an opportunity to change the order of things in the Middle East. Does it make any sense for America to continue to prop up a weak Iraq that is an ally of Iran? Why should the US work to protect the influence of Iran in the region?

Standing by and allowing the Islamic State to topple the corrupt and incompetent government in Baghdad would provide an opportunity for a secular and Sunni led government to gain power. As evidenced in 2006 and 2007, the Iraqi Sunnis are no friends of theological movements and with US support could defeat ISIS.

Since 2011, America has learned why Sunni authoritarian governments have been the easiest to work with and the best solution for governance in the modern Middle East. Waiting for ISIS to topple a central and unfriendly government in Iraq before destroying ISIS would put America well on the way to re-establishing a pre-2003 Middle East. Only then will America have the proper type of ally to thwart future fundamentalist Islamic threats.

Josh Cormier is the creator of www.EngineerJock.com which offers posits on aerospace, defense, energy, and politics.