Latino Voting Surges in Texas And Elsewhere Rattle Republicans on Election Eve

AUSTIN, TX — The Latino electorate in Texas has often been referred to as "the sleeping giant," with pundits predicting that if the disparate groups within the minority bloc (it's not monolithic as some might think) were to galvanize around a common theme or cause, they could very well swing a presidential election.

This year, the sleeping giant has been awakened. And the loud and often brash alarm clock that roused it from voting dormancy is Donald Trump, with Texas Latinos' unprecedented presence at the polls so far aided by more relaxed voting requirements implemented this year.

Latino voter turnout in 20 of the state's largest counties exceeded 2012 voting by 26 percent, the Austin American-Statesman reported. Given voter privacy provisions in Texas, it's a rough calculus based on surnames. But voters with Spanish surnames made up 18.8 percent of the 3.8 million early ballots cast just through last Wednesday, the newspaper reports.

SEE ALSO: Full Presidential Election Results As They Come In

Historically voting Democratic, Latinos are poised to figure prominently in Tuesday's presidential election pitting Trump against Democrat Hillary Clinton. Already, the net effect of the Latino surge has been seen throughout the state, yielding Texas as something of a battleground state — an implausible development in a state that last voted for a Democrat for president in 1976 — thanks largely to the Latino turnout.

But as impressive as the Latino turnout was during the early voting period from Oct. 24 to Nov. 4, it is likely to be diluted by similarly strong surges among Anglo voting, the newspaper reports.

Still, the Latino turnout has Republicans rattled. Prior to Trump's emergence on the national political stage, the GOP had outlined a plan of action outlining outreach efforts to lure Hispanics to their party. But Trump's opening salvo in announcing his campaign — calling Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals — unraveled whatever outreach gains had been accomplished.

That GOP unnerving isn't limited to Texas vis-à-vis the heavy Hispanic showing nationally. "If, as some polls suggest, Hispanic voters are supporting Hillary Clinton by blowout margins, these numbers could sink Trump in a handful of states that are essential to his path to 270 electoral votes," Politico.com asserted.

In Nevada, Latino turnout propelled Democrats in Clark County — the population center that's home to Las Vegas — to a record-breaking close on Friday, Politico.com writes. The upshot: The surge yielded a Democratic lead in early ballots cast to 72,000, "...to essentially tie a bow on the state for Clinton," veteran Nevada political analyst Jon Ralston told Politico.com.

Republicans are also casting a wary eye toward Florida, which tracks turnout with the specificity of race and ethnicity that is lacking in Texas. Hispanics there cast roughly 14 percent of the 5.7 million early and absentee ballots cast, Politico.com noted: "That puts Hispanics far ahead of where they were in casting early ballots relative to 2012," the news site reported.

Analysis by Florida Democratic strategist Steve Schale noted that through Wednesday alone, Hispanic turnout this year has already exceeded Hispanic early voting in the entire 2012 cycle by 170,000 ballots, according to Politico.com. Schale noted many of those casting ballots are first-time voters, whom Democrats see as crucial targets in the early-voting period.

According to data from the Florida Division of Elections, in Osceola, early voting is up about 42 percent since 2012, and in Miami-Dade, it’s up 46 percent. All told, Hispanic turnout has increased 129 percent since 2008. According to The New York Times, 24 percent of Florida’s Hispanic early voters are also voting for the first time this year.

Similar signs suggest Democrats are seeing robust Hispanic turnout in Arizona as well, the news site reported.

In their so-called "autopsy" in the aftermath of the 2012 elections, Republicans coalesced around the idea of needing to embrace Latinos in bringing them into their fold. A key plank to this primer centered on the issue of working toward comprehensive immigration reform to supplant the party's strident anti-migrant stance, but those efforts failed to materialize as a result of Congressional inaction.

Trump's divisive rhetoric on the campaign trail — including his campaign promise to build a literal wall with Mexico — energized his base but further alienated Hispanics, eroding whatever gains his party had reached in their tentative embrace of Latinos in the wake of their electoral losses four years ago.

The candidate didn't exactly ingratiate himself with Latino voters while on the stump. To commemorate Cinco de Mayo, an important Mexican holiday, Trump tweeted himself eating a taco bowl as his form of Hispanic outreach — a move that was seen as reductive at best and culturally offensive at its worst.

The fact that Trump managed to include a plug for his Trump Tower Grill, the site of his dining, added a layer of insincerity to his Cinco de Mayo outreach.

And then there's the Texas Voter ID law. Last summer, a federal court ruled the Texas Voter ID requirements passed in 2011 — considered among the nation's strictest — were unconstitutional, counter to the Voting Rights Act. Consequently, the state was forced to adopt more relaxed standards at polling places that didn't require photo identification in Texas to cast a ballot.

The lack of photo IDs is most prevalent among lower-income Latinos — people who simply can't afford the cost, lack the time given heavy work schedules or lack transportation to secure one at the Department of Motor Vehicles. Given those realities, many voters are availing themselves of new rules allowing them to sign an affidavit explaining their lack of a photo ID while using court-ordered supplemental forms of ID such as a paycheck stub, utility bill or bank statement in order to vote.

The court also ordered the state to release augmented PSAs explaining the new rules in both English and Spanish, which is likely to have had an effect on Latino voter turnout.

The net effect of all this is that, at last check, Texas was no longer deep red but purple. As remarkable as that change in hue is, it's still unlikely that Texas will turn blue come Election Day. But the gains made by Hispanics so far on this election cycle could presage what's to come across the political landscape.

“I don’t think that (the increase) impacts this cycle, but I do think that it shows that the electorate is changing,” Derek Ryan, a political consultant and former research director of the Republican Party of Texas, told the Statesman. “We’re seeing more Hispanics register to vote and, like the numbers say, we’re seeing more Hispanics show up.”

Officials at the San Antonio-based William C. Velásquez Institute, a nonprofit public policy think tank that tracks Latino voting patterns, told the Statesman the impressive showing by Latinos this year is not the sudden awakening of a giant, but a more gradual rise that began in earnest in 2000.

According to U.S. Census Current Population Survey data, Latino turnout in Texas has grown steadily since then, when it saw a jump of 23 percent, officials told the Statesman. In 2008 and 2012, Latino turnout increased by 11 percent, officials added.

“It’s not surprising or earth-shattering,” Antonio González, president of the William C. Velásquez Institute, told the newspaper. “The improvement in Latino participation seems to be modestly exceeding the normal rate of improvement.”

Some Hispanic voting advocates predicted the heavy turnouts long before the spirited presidential contest this year, based on grassroots efforts to bolster the base in mobilizing Latino voters to show up at the polls:

Whatever the outcome on Tuesday, the heavy Latino turnout at the polls continues to galvanize the bloc. In that social media tactic that is the equivalent of a badge of honor, the hashtag #latinosurge has become omnipresent, serving as the basis for a call to action throughout Texas — tied with California as the most Hispanic state, with 38.2 percent of its residents of Latino ancestry.

Nobody can accurately predict what might happen on Tuesday, nor can anyone prognosticate if the Latino vote will emerge as the mighty bloc that will dictate the election results. But if anything is certain, it's this: The sleeping giant is now fully awake and engaged.

>>> Photo via Shutterstock