Escalation and Deescalation Overseas has a Ripple Effect - “The Sunday Political Brunch” - April 12, 2026

“An 11th-Hour Ceasefire” – The world held its collective breath on Tuesday, April 7, 2026. That’s because President Donald Trump warned of a massive military strike on Iran at 8 pm Eastern Time. Just one hour before that deadline, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. He posted on Truth Social, saying, “All U.S. ships, aircraft, and military personnel, with additional ammunition, weaponry, and anything else that is appropriate and necessary for the lethal prosecution and destruction of an already substantially degraded enemy, will remain in place, in and around Iran, until such time as the real agreement reached is fully complied with.” In short, he is saying the U.S. right to attack at any time remains on the table. For its part, Iran has accused the U.S. of already violating the ceasefire in three ways. The U.S. says that’s not true.

“War Crimes?” – “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again, if a deal isn’t reached,” Trump said in an online post Tuesday morning. But he also seemed to keep open the possibility of a deal, saying that “maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen.” Trump says non-military targets such as power plants and bridges would be targeted. Stephane Dujarric, a spokeswoman for United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterras, said, “Even if specific civilian infrastructure were to qualify as a military objective,” it might be considered a war crime if there was “excessive incidental civilian harm.”

“A War of Words” – “Iran will not stand idle in the face of such egregious war crimes. It will exercise, without hesitation, its inherent right of self-defense and will take immediate and proportionate reciprocal measures,” said Iran's United Nations Envoy Amir-Saeid Iravani. Democrat Leaders, led by Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) New York, said in a statement, “This is not strength. Intentionally destroying the power, water, or basic infrastructure upon which tens of millions of civilians depend to punish the very civilians who suffer at the hands of the Iranian regime would constitute a war crime, a betrayal of the values this nation was founded on, and a moral failure." Many in Congress have pressed for a vote on the War Powers Act, but it hasn’t happened yet. Meanwhile Vice President JD Vance is in Pakistan for direct negotiations with Iranian leaders. The world holds its breath once more. After 21 hours, talks with Vance broke off with no deal. Trump is now threatening a U.S. Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

“The Impact Elsewhere” – Since financial markets like stability and certainty, the ceasefire was met with a positive response. The Dow Jones surged by 13 hundred points on Wednesday, and nearly 300 more points on Thursday. Oil, which had spiked to $110 per barrel, dropped back to $95, and prices at the pump followed suit. But nothing says this is permanent. And there remains the possibility of political fallout in the midterm elections. Inflation hit 3.5 percent for March. Still, we are walking on eggshells. President Trump posted Thursday evening, “There are reports that Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the Hormuz Strait – They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!”

“Threats to a Free Press” – President Trump expressed displeasure that a news outlet released the fact that the military was looking for a second missing airman in Iran, after it had rescued another airman after their fighter plane was shot down. "We didn't talk ​about ​the first one for an hour. Then somebody ​leaked something, which we will ‌hopefully find that leaker. We're looking very hard to find that leaker," Trump said. He added, "We're going to go to the media company that released it, and we're going to say, 'National security, give it up (the source) or go to jail.'" In a statement about Trump’s comments, National Press Club president Mark Schoeff Jr. said, “President Trump’s public suggestion that journalists should be jailed if they refuse to reveal confidential sources is a direct threat to the First Amendment and the core function of a free press.” I predict that if any journalist is jailed, there will be a fight all the way to the Supreme Court.

“Cracks in the MAGA Wall” – The critics of President Trump are no longer just Democrats. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) Georgia, once a fierce Trump loyalist, wrote, “25th Amendment!!! Not a single bomb has dropped on America. We cannot kill an entire civilization. This is evil and madness.” Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson said, “Desecrating Easter was the first step towards nuclear war. Christians need to understand where Trump is taking us.” And Candace Owens, another conservative commentator, wrote, “The 25th Amendment needs to be invoked. He’s a genocidal lunatic. Our Congress and military need to intervene. We are beyond madness.” The 25th Amendment can be invoked if it’s determined that a president does not have the physical or mental ability to discharge his duties.

“The ‘Greene’ Seat in Congress” – Speaking of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, there was a special election to fill the House seat left vacant by her resignation. Republicans won the special election, but there are some serious caution signs for the GOP. Republican former prosecutor Clayton Fuller beat the Democrat, retired Brigadier General Shawn Harris. But Fuller only won by 12 points. Greene won the seat in 2024 by 27 percentage points, and Donald Trump carried the district by 39 points in the 2024 presidential elections. That’s an awfully big erosion of GOP support in the special election. And perhaps making matters worse, Fuller is only guaranteed to serve until the end of Greene’s term. Then, there will be Democratic and Republican primaries in mid-May, six months ahead of the November midterm election.

“The House of Cards” -- Here’s another factor that doesn’t bear well for the Republican majority. Of the 58 House members who chose not to run again this year, 21 are Democrats, but 37 are Republicans. With no incumbent, many of these seats will be hotly contested. I have previously predicted a net gain of 20 seats for Democrats, giving them a solid majority. The current unpopularity and lower approval ratings for President Trump are driving this trend. And if Democrats control the House, you can expect the chamber to impeach him for a third time. But even if Democrats retake control of the Senate, their majority will likely be slim, and they won’t have the necessary 67 votes to remove Trump from office. I think the spring primaries, such as Georgia, are an early litmus test, but not necessarily a predictor of what may happen in November.

“Bill Gates to Testify on Epstein Ties” – Microsoft founder Bill Gates will testify before the House Oversight Committee about his relationship with the late sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. The two had a number of business dinners, which Gates hoped might help some international health initiatives he was supporting. That support never came, so Gates ended his talks with Epstein. A spokesman for Gates says, “While he never witnessed or participated in any of Epstein’s illegal conduct, he is looking forward to answering all the committee’s questions to support their important work.” The hearing is on June 10, but will be closed to the press and public. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice says former Attorney General Pam Bondi does not have to testify before the same House Committee on April 14th, since she is no longer the AG. But Rep. Robert Garcia (D) California, issued a statement, saying, “She must come in to testify immediately, and if she defies the subpoena, we will begin contempt charges in the Congress. The survivors deserve justice.”

“Melania Speaks Out on Epstein” – Speaking of Epstein, First Lady Melania Trump took the unusual step of issuing a statement that she was not really friends with Epstein or his girlfriend Ghislaine Maxwell, but that they did see them every so often because they were in the same social circles in New York and Florida. “The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today. The individuals lying about me are devoid of ethical standards, humility, and respect. I do not object to their ignorance, but rather I reject their mean-spirited attempts to defame my reputation.” Yes, the Trumps appeared in occasional photos with Epstein and Maxwell, but the Trumps say they had no idea about Epstein’s sex crimes involving young women. The First Lady also called on Congress to hear testimony about the sex crimes directly from the victims. The chairman and ranking member of the committee say they may do so. I agree, because too much of this information has been suppressed or silenced for too long. The victims need their day for all to hear.

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is a South Florida-based political writer and analyst who has covered news and politics nationwide for the past 49 years. He is a multiple award winner, including two prestigious Edward R. Murrow Awards. Most recently, he served as the Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations, covering West Virginia and its five neighboring states, as well as the Washington, DC media market. Curtis is a former Congressional Fellow who worked in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate. Over the years, he has been a contributing writer and analyst at Patch.com. His commentary and analysis can be heard weekly at 1:45pm Friday, on the 22-station West Virginia Metro News Radio Network. www.WVMetroNews.com.

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