Old Farmer's Almanac Issues Winter 2018 Virginia, DC Forecast

With summer-like high temperatures in the mid-80s this weekend, it sure won't feel like the beginning of autumn, but nonetheless, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its winter weather forecast. If you hate shoveling snow, you’ll like it.

The forecast for Washington, DC, and northern Virginia calls for a warmer than normal winter for much of the state with above-normal precipitation and below-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be in late December, early and mid-January, and early and mid-February. The snowiest periods will be in mid- to late November, early and mid- to late January, and mid-March. (Subscribe to a Virginia Patch News Alert and Newsletter. For DC readers, Get Patch’s daily newsletter and news alerts. Or like us on Facebook. Or, if you have an iPhone, download the free Patch app.)

For most of the area, November - particularly later in the month - will be a little cold, while December will be a little warmer than usual, an average high around 40 degrees. Some snow could arrive in late November, but most of the winter weather is expected to happen in January and February, when the average temperatures are expected to dip into the low 30s. Snow also is expected to arrive in March, perhaps in the middle of the month.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac forecast is a stark contrast to the predictions of competing publication the Farmer’s Almanac. In August, the Farmer’s Almanac predicted Northern Virginia and The District will experience "above-normal" precipitation and that the region will have a "cold-and-snowy" winter.

So, of the two almanacs, which is typically more reliable?

Both publications have been making long-term weather predictions for more than 225 years. The forecasts are created months ahead of time, using various methods.

According to a Time Magazine report, The Old Farmer's Almanac bases its predictions on a "top-secret formula" that includes using a complicated mathematical formula devised by founder Robert B. Thomas in 1792. That top-secret formula uses sunspots, planetary positions and tidal patterns. The publication says it's 80 percent accurate.

Its rival, the Farmer’s Almanac, founded in 1818, relies on mathematical and astronomical factors for its forecast, The Erie Times-News reports.

But don't get too excited about either forecast. Experts, including a Penn State meteorologist who has studied the reliability of the dueling forecasts, are skeptical of their accuracy.

"The ability to predict events that far in advance is zero," said Penn State meteorologist Paul Knight. "There's no proven skill, there's no technique that's agreed upon in science to be able to do that."

He also noted the forecasts use vague and imprecise terms, making it difficult to assess their true accuracy.
With reporting by Kara Seymour
Photo from Shutterstock