COVID-19 Hospitalizations In Virginia Forecast To Far Exceed Last Winter's Rate

VIRGINIA — More than 3,300 Virginians are hospitalized with COVID-19 as of Friday, a new record for the state since the start of the pandemic, as the omicron variant is causing illness among all ages.

Despite the omicron seeming less virulent than the delta variant, it is causing many more cases than delta, leading models to forecast “a deluge of hospitalizations” far exceeding those of last winter, University of Virginia researchers said Friday.

Also on Friday, the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association reported 3,329 hospitalizations, breaking the previous state record of 3,209, set almost a year ago, on Jan. 13, 2021.

Among the hospitalizations on Friday, 545 people were in intensive care and 297 were on ventilators.

The 7-day moving average for hospitalizations on Jan. 7 was 2,785. Last summer, the 7-day average dipped to 222 hospitalizations on July 10, 2021, the lowest level in 2021, according to the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association.

As of Friday, the 7-day percent positivity rate for COVID-19 tests was 34.6 percent in Virginia, a new record high since the start of the pandemic in March 2020.

The VDH reported 18,309 new cases of COVID-19 on Friday, a bigger increase than the 15,840 new cases reported on Thursday. Fairfax County, the largest jurisdiction in the state, reported 2,925 new cases on Friday, the most of any health district.

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Hospitalizations of U.S. children under 5 with COVID-19 have surged in recent weeks to their highest level since the pandemic began, according to government data released Friday. Children under 5 are not yet eligible for the vaccine.

While children still have the lowest rate of hospitalization of any age group, “pediatric hospitalizations are at their highest rate compared to any prior point in the pandemic,” Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a statement.

The rise in hospitalizations for children could be the result of their being admitted to the hospital for other reasons and testing positive once there, according to Walensky.

"We have no evidence Omicron causes increased [disease] severity in this age group yet," she said during a media briefing with reporters.

None of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines — from Johnson & Johnson, Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech — have been cleared for use in children age 4 years and younger.

Across the country, slightly more than 50 percent of children ages 12 to 18 are fully vaccinated and 16 percent of those 5 to 11 are fully vaccinated.

The Pfizer vaccine has been authorized for children 5 and older since late October. This week, COVID-19 booster shots became available to children aged 12 to 15. Younger children aged 5 to 11 are eligible if they are moderately to severely immunocompromised.

'Enormous Burden' On Hospitals: UVA Researchers

The omicron variant has displaced delta as the dominant variant and is now responsible for an estimated 94 percent of new cases in Virginia, according to the University of Virginia's Biocomplexity Institute.

"Case rates have accelerated to unprecedented levels throughout the Commonwealth, and all 35 health districts are now in surge," the UVA researchers said in its weekly modeling report released Friday.

"Models project a continued sharp rise in cases for several weeks, possibly followed by an equally sharp decline," they said. "There is some evidence that Omicron may be less severe than Delta, but the explosion of new cases is still expected to put an enormous burden on communities and the healthcare system."

The large number of new cases may overwhelm testing capacities and drive down the case detection rate, according to the UVA researchers. "As such, case rates may not be as reliable a marker of epidemic trends as they once were," they said.

Omicron is potentially 70 times better at infecting airways than the delta variant, according to the UVA researchers. "Though milder than Delta, Omicron is far from harmless, and far more than 'just a cold.' It is still hospitalizing substantial numbers of patients, and still carries the risk of long COVID," they said

Models now forecast a repeat of last year's winter surge, with another peak in late January. Omicron's surge could dwarf the number of cases from early 2021 or during the delta surge.

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