Nationals Spend $210 Million: Hot Stove 1/20

News

The Tigers signed David Price to an arbitration-record $19.75 million deal for the 2015 season.

AA and AAA will feature 20-second pitch clocks for the 2015 season, much like shot clocks in basketball or play clocks in football.

The rumor mill has the Nationals and Mets possibly discussing an Ian Desmond trade, while the Marlins are seriously considering a run at signing Ichiro Suzuki.

Free Agent Signings

Nationals signed Max Scherzer (18-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2015 age: 30-31) to a seven year, $210 million deal ($15 million per season over 14 years).

Giants signed Nori Aoki (1 HR, 43 RBI, .285 AVG, 17 SB, 2015 age: 33) to a one year, $4.7 million deal (plus up to $7.8 million in incentives).

Astros signed Colby Rasmus (18 HR, 40 RBI, .225 AVG, 4 SB, 2015 age: 28) to a one year, $8 million deal.

Yankees resigned Stephen Drew (7 HR, 26 RBI, .162 AVG, 1 SB, 2015 age: 32) to a one year, $5 million deal (plus up to $1.5 million in incentives).

Blue Jays resigned Munenori Kawasaki (0 HR, 17 RBI, .258 AVG, 1 SB, 2015 age: 33-34) to a minor league deal.

Dodgers signed Erik Bedard (4-6, 4.76 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 2015 age: 36) to a minor league deal.

Cubs signed Francisley Bueno (0-0, 4.18 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2015 age: 34) to a minor league deal.

Cubs signed Daniel Bard (missed 2014, 3.67 career ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2015 age: 29-30) to a minor league deal.

I have two reactions to the Max Scherzer signing. The first is “Wow, our rotation is stacked!”. The second is “Wow, that is a crazy amount of money!”. Max Scherzer is one of the best pitchers in the game, but did the Nationals really get the most value out of that $210 million that they could have? I don’t think so. Retaining Jordan Zimmermann would have cost much less, probably closer to $150 or $160 million. Is Scherzer really worth $50-60 million more than Zimmermann? I don’t think so. Interestingly, a provision in his contract extends his paydays for seven years after his signing while cutting his annual earnings in half, meaning we’ll pay him $15 million a year for 14 years instead of $30 million a year for seven years, which I have no strong opinion on. Now with Scherzer on board, I think the Nationals need to trade one of the following: Jordan Zimmermann or Doug Fister, who have one year left on their contracts, or Stephen Strasburg, who has two. Any of the three will net us a sizeable haul of prospects we could use to replenish our system. Now, speaking from a non-monetary point of view: Wow! Look at our freakin’ rotation! It’s insane! Scherzer, Strasburg, Zimmermann, and Fister could all be Cy Young candidates, while Gio Gonzalez is easily one of the better pitchers in baseball. Even our sixth starter (if that’s even a thing) is Tanner Roark, who is 22-11 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 45 games (36 starts) for his career. Is that not the greatest number six starter of all time? We’re pushing an All-Star caliber player like that into the bullpen, so even if a starter goes down with an injury, we’ll still have an all-All Star rotation. Good luck Braves, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, Cardinals, Dodgers, and everyone else in the National League! You’re gonna need it.

Back to Scherzer, this guy is one of the best. Period. Right handed batters find it nearly impossible to hit against him, and he’s no walk in the park for left handers either. He strikes out a plethora of batters, and his control has only gotten better over the past few years. Scherzer had a breakout season in 2012, going 16-7 with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP over 32 starts for the Tigers in his age 27-28 season, finishing second in the major leagues with 231 strikeouts in only 187.2 innings. The only pitcher ahead of him, teammate Justin Verlander, struck out 239 while pitching 238.1 innings, 50.2 innings more than Scherzer. His 11.08 strikeouts per nine innings set a Detroit franchise record. In 2013, Scherzer accomplished the rare double-breakout season, breaking out above what was thought to be his breakout season in 2012. In 32 starts in 2013, the former Mizzou Tiger finished 21-3 with a 2.90 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and 240 strikeouts in 214.1 innings. On his way to winning the AL Cy Young Award, he led the majors in wins while finishing second in strikeouts (to Yu Darvish) and third in WHIP (to Clayton Kershaw and Matt Harvey). He couldn’t quite build on that last year, but he still finished a solid 18-5 with a 3.15 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, striking out 252 batters in 220.1 innings and thereby proving he’s no fluke. He’s also pitched 62.2 postseason innings and unlike most Nats pitchers, he’s actually won a few games, going 4-3 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP in 12 games (10 starts). Over his seven year career, he is 91-50 with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 1321 strikeouts in 1239.1 innings. Over the past three seasons, he is 55-15 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 97 starts.

Trades

Brewers traded Yovani Gallardo (8-11, 3.51 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2015 age: 29) and cash considerations to the Rangers for Luis Sardinas (0 HR, 8 RBI, .261 AVG, 5 SB, 2015 age: 22), Corey Knebel (0-0, 6.23 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 2015 age: 23), and minor leaguer Marcos Diplan (7-2, 1.54 ERA, 1.06 WHIP at DSL, 2015 age: 18).

Astros traded Dexter Fowler (8 HR, 35 RBI, .276 AVG, 11 SB, 2015 age: 29) to the Cubs for Luis Valbuena (16 HR, 51 RBI, .249 AVG, 1 SB, 2015 age: 29) and Dan Straily (1-3, 6.75 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 2015 age: 26).

The Rangers made a very big addition to their rotation by adding Dallas area native Yovani Gallardo, a soon to be 29 year old right hander who has established himself as one of the greatest starters in Brewers history. He’ll slot into the Texas rotation with Yu Darvish, Nick Martinez, Derek Holland, and Ross Detwiler. Texas is already down Martin Perez and Matt Harrison, both of whom are rehabbing from major surgeries. Gallardo looks like the finishing touch to this rotation as the Rangers look to bounce back from a less-than-mediocre 2014. Though Gallardo is a bit inconsistent, when he’s on, he’s unhittable. For example, on his second to last start of the 2014 season, he limited the Pirates to just five hits and one (intentional) walk while striking out eleven batters in seven shutout innings. Gallardo’s best season came back in 2011, when the 25 year old went 17-10 with a 3.52 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and 207 strikeouts in 207.1 innings. That season was higlighted by an April 5th start where he tossed a two hit, complete game shutout of the Braves. Despite a losing record last year, Gallardo actually set a career best with a 3.51 ERA while churning out a solid 1.29 WHIP. However, his strikeouts are down and his opponents are hitting him more often, which leads me to wonder whether his age 29 season was actually worth three solid prospects. He will be a free agent after the season. For his career, Gallardo is 89-64 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, and he is the Brewers’ all time strikeouts leader with 1226. Additionally, he is fifth in wins, third in ERA, and eighth in WHIP.

To me, the Brewers got more than enough in return for their ace. It all starts with Luis Sardinas, the 21 year old shortstop who is ready to battle for a spot in the infield and possibly overtake Scooter Gennett as Milwaukee’s Opening Day second baseman. Always a top prospect, Sardinas possesses very little power, but the guy can hit and run. The 150 pound Venezuelan holds a .289 career minor league batting average, and he stole over 30 bases in the minors in both 2012 and 2013. After hitting .290 with nine stolen bases in 60 games for AAA Round Rock in 2014, he earned his first call-up to the bigs, where he actually faired pretty well, batting .261 with five stolen bases in 43 games. Pretty good for a 21 year old. The other major league ready player going to Milwaukee is Corey Knebel, who might be a little disappointed to be leaving Dallas after only eight games. The Texas native pitched at the University of Texas until he was drafted 39th overall by the Tigers in 2013. A year later, the former Texas Longhorn was traded to the Texas Rangers in the Joakim Soria trade, but he only got to pitch eight games for his hometown Rangers. The 23 year old righty can join the Brewers bullpen immediately, but he still hasn’t proven himself at the major league level. Over 65 minor league appearances, Knebel went 7-2 with a 1.65 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, striking out 104 batters in 76.1 innings while allowing opponents to bat just .145. The hard thrower had trouble in the majors, and allowed six runs in 8.2 innings (6.23 ERA), though he did strike out eleven. In a few years, he could take over as the Milwaukee closer. Lastly, and in fact most interestingly, the Brewers will get 18 year old Marcos Diplan. Diplan may have never thrown a pitch in the United States, and he may be less than four months older than me, but Diplan already has scouts excited. The kid throws hard with excellent secondary pitches, and he absolutely shut down the Dominican Summer League in 2014. Despite spending the entire season at the age of 17 and weighing just 160 pounds, Diplan went 7-2 with a 1.54 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over 13 starts, limiting opponents to a .155 average. His fastball is speeding up and will only get faster, and his secondary pitches are already developing. Once he fills out his six foot frame and improves his command (he walked 36 batters in 64.1 innings), Diplan could be on the fast track to a major league rotation.

Waiver Claims

Phillies claimed Jordan Danks (2 HR, 10 RBI, .222 AVG, 5 SB, 2015 age: 28) off waivers from the White Sox.

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HR: home runs. RBI: runs batted in. AVG: batting average. SB: stolen bases. ERA: earned run average. WHIP: walks/hits per innings pitched. K’s: strikeouts. WPCT: winning percentage

Zack Silverman.