District Elections - Summary

Last week we looked at the final 5 maps being considered for the district elections for Lake Forest in 2018. On Nov 7 the Council meets to select the final map.

To date we analyzed the maps according to whether

• · they maintained the “one person one vote” federal mandate” (Click Here)
• · they kept communities of interest intact (Click Here)
• · they were compact (Click Here)

In the three comparisons (“one person one vote”,“communities of interest”, compactness), the data are well established.

Here are the results, in order of importance.

ONE PERSON ONE VOTE

The single most important consideration in selecting a map is that the districts be of equal size. No map achieved perfect alignment, but they did vary a lot, and here are the total deviations for each of the maps. The map with the lowest number is the one that most approaches perfect alignment and conformity to the one person one vote mandate.

• Map #109 – 110
• Map #110 – 145
• Map #128 - 860
• Map #116 – 1,082
• Map #115 – 1,302

Maps #109 and #110 are not only the best maps, they are significantly better than the rest of the pack.

KEEPING COMMUNITIES INTACT OR MOSTLY INTACT

We identified 8 communities of interest impacted by the districts and we considered whether or not the map kept a community of interest intact or nearly intact (75% or more). Here are the results. The higher the score, the more communities are kept intact or mostly intact.

• Map #109 – 8
• Map #110 – 7
• Map #115 – 5
• Map #116 – 4
• Map #128 - 4

Once again Maps #109 and #110 are not only the best maps, they are significantly better than the rest of the pack.

COMPACTNESS

The software used by the demographers has a “compactness” score called “Reock” which is “an area-based measure that compares each district to a circle, which is considered to be the most compact shape possible.” Using this measure, the higher the score, the more the compactness. Here are the results:

• · Map #110 - .50
• · Map #109 - .40
• · Map #116 - .40
• · Map #115 - .35
• · Map #128 - .20

Maps #110 and #109 come out on top again but the comparisons here are less dramatic than in the other two comparisons, with the exception that Map #128 is a clear outlyer.

RANK ORDER ANALYSIS FOR ALL 3 COMPARISONS

This score ranks each map for each comparison and then sums the ranks. Lower is better.

• Map #109 – 4.5
• Map #110 – 5
• Map #116 – 10.5
• Map #115 – 12
• Map #128 – 13

Looking across the 3 measures for which we have reasonable certainty, it looks like Map #109 is the favorite. It adheres most closely to the “one person one vote” mandate, keeps the most communities of interest intact, and has the second best score with regard to compactness, just behind Map #110.

Map #110 is the second best map. It is #1 with regard to compactness, and #2 with regard to the “one person one vote” mandate and with keeping communities of interest together.

Maps#109 and #110 are so far superior on the 3 measures under study that none of the other maps are even close.

Map #116 comes in a distant third. It tied for #2 in compactness, came in 4th in keeping communities intact, and 4th in “one person one vote”.

Map #115 comes in 4th. It is last with regard to “one person one vote”, 3rd in keeping communities together, and 4th in compactness.

Map #128 comes in last. It was 3rd in “one person one vote”, last in keeping communities intact, and last in compactness.

SUMMARY

Maps #109 and #110 are the clear winners, with a slight margin for #109, but the differences between #109 and #110 are minimal. Together they are #1 or #2 on all measures. No other maps come close to these two on those 3 comparisons.

#109 and #110 are similar with how they treat FHR and PH and how they treat the NorthCentral part of the City. They differ because #109 creates a unified district along the South side of the City, from the freeway to Portola Parkway, combining the homes South of El Toro Rd. into one district.

Next time we'll have some final thoughts..

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a mini town meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be on Dec 2 at 2 pm at the El Toro Public Library.