Real Estate Trends in Orange County

I went to a meeting last week and they presented some interesting data about the real estate market in Orange County. Here are my notes –

• Between 2010 and 2018 owner occupancy has steadily declined from 61% to 57%.
• At the same time, the costs of a new home rose 63% while the costs of renting rose only 28%. Income rose less than 10%.
• With a home price of $700,000 and 10% down, a mortgage rate of 4% means that the monthly payment is $3,000 per month.
• In 2010 the inventory of new homes for sale was 43,940. By 2018 it fell to 38,936.
• The luxury home market ($1.25 million and above) makes up 30% of the supply but only 10% of the demand.
• In 2012 there were 938 condos with list prices below $250,000. By 2018 this dropped to 145.
• In 2012 there were 1,026 homes with list prices below $500,000. By 2018 this dropped to 194.
• Days on market for a sale were 59 in 2010 and only 20 in 2018.
• Homes in OC turn over once every 23 years as more people are “aging in place”.
• All cash sales rose from 10% in 2008 to 29% in 2017.
• In 2010 only 2% of the workforce worked from home. In 2016 it was 17% and continues to rise.
• Since 2010 home building (single + multi-family) has been rising steadily from under 50,000 per year to more than 100,000 per year. Household growth is estimated at 165,000 per year.
• In 2013 there were an estimated 4,200 homeless people. In 2017 this rose steadily to 4,800.

Thanks to Tony Capitelli and the Orange County Association of Realtors for an informative meeting.

What can we make of these trends and what does that mean for the City? We’ll talk about that next time.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jim Gardner is on the City Council for Lake Forest where he serves as Mayor. You can check him out on LinkedIn and/or Facebook and you can share your thoughts about the City at Lake Forest Town Square on Facebook. His Twitter handle is @DrJimGardner. His comments are not meant to reflect official City Policy.

Dr. Gardner has office hours every Tuesday from 4 pm to 6 pm at the City Hall. In addition, he holds a town hall meeting every quarter. The next meeting will be Aug 16 at 7 pm at the Lake 1 Clubhouse (Ridge Route).