
In company meetings my broker used to always like to say, “There is a reason (to sell) for every season”. People like to sell their homes in the spring because the flowers are blooming and their yards look best. Summer is great because kids are out of school and families are looking to relocate for the next year. The weather is warm and it’s far more pleasant to look for a new home in the sunshine. Fall and winter are when the most serious homebuyers are out in force. Sellers don’t need to compete against as many homes during the fall and winter, as inventory is consistently lower. As an added benefit you don't have as many casual buyers going through the open houses, just the hard-core ones with a real desire to purchase.
But if there's one month that you don't see as many reasons to buy and sell and less activity it would probably be August. In August families are getting ready for their kids to go back to school. People that looked through the spring and summer are ready for their final vacations before school starts. I’m not going to attempt to provide any empirical evidence, but in August we typically see more price reductions. Sellers who have been unable to attract acceptable offers take the prospect of price reductions more seriously and begin marking down their asking prices if they haven’t done so already. We do see a considerable amount of closed sales in August, but that's because properties that attracted offers in July have their escrows close in August.
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One can effectively argue that the slowest week on the real estate calendar is the week between Christmas and New Year's Eve. But for my money August is the slowest month. Why can't I wait for Labor Day? I have a feeling that September, October and November will be very good months in the Marin housing market in 2013.
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Even after a jump in interest rates this summer, by historical standards our rates remain low and attractive. Prices have risen so there are more home sellers willing and able to sell. The stock market is at an all-time high and there are plenty of people with money willing to invest in the homes of their dreams and investors prepared to pounce on cash flow properties. Plus there are more fix and flip buyer/sellers in the market than we have seen in a long time. It’s much easier to make money when the market is going up.
Of course if someone is thinking about putting their property on the market after Labor Day, August is the time to get ready. So I'm thinking this August is going to be a great month for Marin contractors this year