Social Distancing Has Saved 10,000 Lives in CT: Report

CONNECTICUT — Strict social distancing measures put in place last month to limit the spread of the new coronavirus in Connecticut has already shown tremendous benefits, according to a new report.

Data Analytics firm DataHaven in New Haven has projected that by limiting their travel and interaction Connecticut residents have already saved 10,000 lives, and are on track to saving another six or seven thousand more.

Gov. Ned Lamont enacted state-wide restrictions on non-essential travel and gatherings on March 16, one day after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended them. His toothier "Stay Safe, Stay Home" executive order kicked in on March 23.

When penning the order, Lamont said, "I know that this will be disruptive to many and will bring many daily activities to a halt, but the only way we will be able to mitigate the impacts of this public health emergency is to take measures like this."

He was spot-on about the "disruptive" bit — it's fundamentally changed the way many industries, including real estate and even law enforcement, do business — but how much "mitigating" has it done?

Quite a bit, according to DataHaven's analysts:

In the chart above, created by Camille Seaberry, DataHaven's senior research associate, the number of deaths avoided by hunkering down and away from one another is projected to surpass the combined number of lives lost to heart disease, stroke and cancer in the same period.

As part of their analysis, DataHaven used mobility data from Descartes Lab which showed that Connecticut residents actually began cutting back their travel several days before Lamont raised the alarm on March 15. The cell phone data revealed that Connecticut residents' average mobility steadily declined from 4.7 miles on March 12 to less than half a mile on March 23.

The analysts based their predicted COVID-19 death toll on a methodology designed by Community Information Now at the UTHealth School of Public Health. It uses data from a New York Times epidemiological model of COVID-19-related infections and deaths in the United States.

Where most municipal administrations in Connecticut got on board the social distancing train early, they have had mixed success getting their residents to buy in.

Officials in Fairfield have publicly contemplated fining residents for using local parks and beaches, while in Stratford police will hit you up for a Benjamin if they catch you with four or more members of your crew.

In Danbury, where the hospital was ground zero for COVID-19 in Connecticut, Mayor Mark Boughton has said he didn't have enough cops to police every social gathering of over five people.

"Eighty to eighty-five percent of the people have been very cooperative," Boughton told Patch. "Ten to fifteen percent of the people, we spend most of our day chasing around."

According to DataHaven's projections based on NYT data, extending social distancing by just two more weeks would save 4,000 more lives. One more month of social distancing would save 6,000 lives.

And one more month of social distancing is probably what Connecticut is going to get. Lamont had effectively closed the state until May 20, naming that the date when his Reopen Connecticut Advisory Group would deliver a plan for moving forward. On Thursday, Indra Nooyi, co-chair of the group, revealed that the state likely won't reopen until "June in small steps." She said all scenarios are being studied including whether it makes sense to open parts of the state up regionally or by job.

"I would argue that we have slowed the spread," Boughton said of his city's social distancing initiatives. "The big problem with this virus is that once it gets rolling through a community, it overwhelms the healthcare system. But by slowing the spread, it gives hospitals time to slow the cases."