Coronavirus Death Toll Rises, But CDC Forecast Is Optimistic

CONNECTICUT — The weekly coronavirus death toll in the state has fallen off the torrid pace it has set since the first week of August, and federal health officials expect more of the same through the beginning of October.

This week, the state Department of Public Health has reported just 22 new deaths. Last week, DPH reported 39 news deaths, up from 25 the previous week.

Nationwide, more than 654,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the U.S. since the pandemic began, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Connecticut, there have been 8,416 COVID-19-associated deaths.

CDC is forecasting that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next four weeks, with 6,900 to 18,000 new deaths likely reported in the week ending Oct. 2.

The national "ensemble" predicts that a total of 683,000 to 710,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date. An ensemble forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into one aggregate prognostication to improve prediction over the next 4 weeks (More on that methodology here.).

The CDC's most recent ensemble model for new weekly COVID-19 deaths specifically for Connecticut shows the peak occurring the week of Sept. 12, and declining through the end of the month. Cross your fingers.

In the graph below, the black line charts the historical toll of new deaths each week since the beginning of July in Connecticut. The dark red line tracks the predicted new COVID-19 deaths, beginning this week (where the data released by DPH indicates it is on the money, if not even a little pessimistic).

The state has been averaging 20.5 coronavirus-associated deaths a week since the beginning of August. Although the rate of vaccinations has slowed, the daily virus positivity rate has dropped reliably below 3 percent after spiking anomalously above 4.6 percent on the last day of August.

Overnight, DPH reported a coronavirus positivity rate of 2.93 percent in the state, on the back of 626 newly confirmed cases and 21,386 tests.

The number of Connecticut residents hospitalized with the coronavirus has been steadily, if slowly, dropping since the last week in August. Ten more beds were freed up overnight, according to DPH, which brings the number of COVID-19 patients requiring health facility care in the state to 354. Of those, 262, or 74 percent, are not fully vaccinated, according to a DPH report.

On Thursday, Gov. Ned Lamont cited unvaccinated residents, inconsistent mask usage, and indoor activities as the root causes for three new COVID-19 outbreaks in the state.

The majority of coronavirus patients remain hospitalized in Hartford County, with 108, followed by 99 in New Haven County.

As of Thursday, the CDC has listed five Connecticut counties in the "High Transmission" category of COVID-19 including Hartford, Litchfield, New Haven, New London and Windham Counties. The High Transmission category—which is the most severe as defined by the CDC—is 100 or more cases per 100,000 people or a positivity rate of 10 percent or higher over the past seven days.

Fairfield, Middlesex and Tolland counties are classified by the CDC as being in the "Substantial Transmission" category, defined as 50 to 100 cases per 100,000, or a positivity rate between 8 and 10 percent over the past seven days.

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