Hurricane Update: Florence Shifts Closer To DC In Latest Models

WASHINGTON, DC -- Former Hurricane Florence's projected track just took a dramatic shift in D.C.'s direction, but it's still way too early to say whether or not we'll see any effects from the storm.

The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang tweeted a graphic late Thursday that shows a change in the track to one that is much closer to the coast, and therefore to D.C.

Florence weakened to a tropical storm not long after becoming a major hurricane, but it is expected to strengthen right back up to a category 3 or higher in the coming days. If it does make landfall on the United States coast, it would happen late next week.

CWG cautions that there is a "huge range of possibilities" for this storm, lest anyone start making emergency preparations for a direct hit on D.C. now. The storm might hit far to the south of D.C., or it might roll up the coast and completely miss landfall altogether. In fact, the average of all simulations still has Florence staying just offshore.

"Whether it is a direct hit, a graze or near miss is unknowable for an event so far into the future," CWG wrote. "The storm is still 1,800 miles from the East Coast."

However, the track has shifted west in recent days, and there remains a strong possibility of landfall.

Even if the storm fails to make landfall, if it comes close enough to shore it could flood our area with heavy rain and pound the coastal zones. Strong winds could also cause problems. Should it move out to sea and stay well off the coast, the worst that would happen is strong waves and rip currents on the beaches.

Interestingly, landfall by such a storm is exceedingly rare. CWG notes that 67 named storms have passed within 200 nautical miles of the present location of Florence since 1851, but not a single one of them ever made landfall on the United States.

"So if this one does, it would be a remarkable outlier," they write -- while adding the caveat that the strong area of high pressure that is steering this storm is also very unusual.

So there's no need to panic right now -- even if there was a direct hit, D.C. is well insulated from hurricanes -- but you should certainly continue to monitor the storm in the coming days.

If you'd like, it can't hurt to make sure you have a good emergency kit with supplies for three days, and that you trim trees that could fall on your house. But for now, just enjoy some of this nice, cool weather we're supposed to get this weekend. And take time to make these preparations, which are good to have in place during any storm season.

Hurricane Preparation Tips

• Get Prepared: Take action now to be prepared for hurricane season. As the storm approaches, it is often
• too late to get ready. Make sure you have family evacuation and communications plans, update your
• emergency supply kit, and evaluate your flood insurance needs.
• Complete a family communication plan. Plan how you will assemble your family and loved ones
• and anticipate where you will go for different situations. Get together with your family and agree on
• the ways to contact one another in an emergency and identify meeting locations.
• Create or restock your emergency kit. Being prepared means having your own food, water and
• other supplies to last for at least 72 hours. A disaster supplies kit is a collection of basic items your
• household may need in the event of an emergency, including an all weather radio.
• Check your insurance coverage. Most homeowner's insurance policies do not cover damage or losses from flooding. Review your policy, ensure you're adequately covered and understand exclusions, and contact your agent for any changes.
• Stay Informed. Know where to go for trusted sources of information during a hurricane event. Monitor
• local news resources for hurricane watches and warnings and follow directions of local officials.
• Determine Your Risk. Find out what types of wind and water hazards are likely in your area. Hurricanes are not just a coastal problem and their effects can reach hundreds of miles inland. Since the U.S. has not been hit by a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) in over a decade, "many people are suffering from hurricane amnesia in the forms of complacency, denial and inexperience."
• Develop an Evacuation Plan. Find out if you live in a storm surge hurricane evacuation zone or if your home is unfit to keep you safe in a hurricane. Speak with family and friends and work out a plan to use their home as an evacuation destination. Be sure to account for pets, since many shelters do not allow them.
• Assemble Disaster Supplies. Supplies are necessary not just for the storm itself, but for the often long and grueling aftermath. Stock up on non-perishable food, water and medicine to support your family for at least a week. Other recommended items are cash and battery-powered radios and flashlights. Since many of us use cell phones, have a solar-powered or hand-crank USB charger.
• Know Your Risk and Plan Ahead for an Evacuation:
• Know how to receive information including recommendations or orders to evacuate.
• If you plan to go to a shelter, notify staff of any special needs you or your family have.
• Do not return to the evacuation area until the evacuation order is lifted.

Get Tech Ready
Technology has made it easier to prepare for emergencies, but it can be unreliable during big storms if you haven't planned to keep your gadgets protected and powered up. Here are some tips to make sure you are tech ready:

Be Informed

Here are basic commands to get started:

• Download the FEMA app. Receive weather alerts from the National Weather Service for up to five different locations anywhere in the United States. To search for open shelters (for disaster survivors): text SHELTER and a Zip Code to 43362 (4FEMA)

Make A Social Media Plan

• Use text messages, social media and email to connect with friends and family during emergencies.
  • Mobile networks can become overwhelmed during emergencies, making it difficult to place and receive phone calls. Text messages require less bandwidth, which means they are able to be transmitted more reliably.
  • Social media channels such as Facebook and Twitter can also be an effective way to update family and friends during emergencies. Facebook's Safety Check feature allows users to easily post a status update indicating that they are safe during a time of disaster.
• Register with American Red Cross's Safe & Well site to let family and friends know you're okay.
• Have an emergency charging option for your phone and other mobile devices. Smartphones have become a vital tool to receive emergency alerts and warnings,, so it's important to make sure you can keep them powered up in an emergency.
• In your car: Keep a portable phone charger in your vehicle at all times, and consider purchasing a back-up power supply to keep in your vehicle as well.
• Change the settings on your phone to low power mode or place it on airplane mode to conserve energy.

• Store important documents in a secure, password-protected jump drive or in the cloud.
  • Capture electronic versions of important documents such as insurance policies, identification documents, and medical records. Don't forget to include your pet's information.
  • Back-up your computer to protect photos and other personally important electronic documents.
  • Scan old photos to protect them from loss.
  • Keep your contacts updated and synced across all of your channels, including phone, email and social media. This will make it easy to reach out to the right people quickly to get information and supply updates. Consider creating a group listserv of your top contacts.
  • Create a group chat via a texting app or a thread for family/friends/coworkers to communicate quickly during a disaster.

Here are basic commands to get started:

• Sign up for Direct Deposit and electronic banking through your financial institution so you can access your payroll funds and make electronic payments wherever you are. Federal benefit recipients can sign up by calling (800) 333-1795 or at GoDirect.org.

Additional information can be found on the Virginia Department of Health website.

Residents readying for a storm can get tips and advice on the federal government's Ready.gov website. To keep up with potential storms during hurricane season, bookmark the National Hurricane Center's website. For local weather and severe weather alerts, visit the National Weather Service online.

Image: Hurricane Sandy in 2012. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)