2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: What It Means In Florida

FLORIDA — Even as rebuilding continues from the destruction caused by Hurricane Ian's landfall last September, conditions seem likely for Florida to again take a swipe by hurricanes this year, according to AccuWeather’s 2023 Atlantic hurricane forecast released Wednesday.

Overall, the private weather company said, it looks as if 2023 will be less active than the majority of seasons since 1995 and near the historical average of 11 to 15 named storms. People in Northeast states are the least likely to see devastating hurricanes this season and, as is typical, Florida is the most at risk.

Florida will again be at risk for land-falling tropical systems during the 2023 season, which begins in two months, AccuWeather said, and residents should prepare now.

Category 4 strength Hurricane Ian killed at least 148 people in Florida, most of them in coastal communities where dozens of residents drowned in storm surge as seawater swamped their vehicles or inundated their homes, NBC News said. Ian was one of the deadliest hurricanes to hit the U.S. in the past 20 years, the network said.

Florida District Medical Examiners reported 131 deaths attributed to Hurricane Ian.

The weather agency said between four and eight of the forecast storms could reach hurricane-strength, and up to three of them could become major hurricanes — that is, those with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater and rated 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

“Based on climatology and an evolving El Niño pattern during August through October, the highest chance for direct and significant impacts will be from the Florida Panhandle around the entire state of Florida to the Carolina coast,” Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said. “There appears to be a lower chance for direct impacts over the western Gulf of Mexico and for the Northeast U.S."

Since 1851 when forecasters began keeping track, 39 hurricanes have struck Florida. Three have been Category 5 hurricanes including the so-called Labor Day hurricane on Sept. 3, 1935, Hurricane Andrew on Aug. 24, 1992 and Hurricane Michael on Oct. 10, 2018. There have been 13 Category 4 hurricanes and 22 Category 3 hurricanes.

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Florida, Puerto Rico and South Carolina endured the worst of 2022, which included strikes from hurricanes Ian and Fiona in September then Nicole, which made a rare late-season landfall on Florida’s east coast in November.

Unfortunately for those in the Sunshine State who are still recovering from those punishing hurricanes, AccuWeather forecasters said the state will once again be at a higher risk than other parts of the country.

AccuWeather said that among the factors influencing the hurricane seasons is the expected transition to El Nino — which can produce wind shears that deter the development of tropical storm development. Other factors include rising sea surface temperatures in tropical hotbeds of the Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico, and the strength of the African easterly jet wind pattern, AccuWeather said.

The forecast also considers 30-year averages from 1990 to 2020, with a focus on years with years with similar current and expected weather patterns. The years used for comparison were 2006 and 2009, years with a below-average number of Atlantic storms; and 2012 and 2018, years with a higher-than-normal number of named storms.

Among them were Superstorm Sandy, a late-season storm that wreaked havoc on mid-Atlantic states in 2012, and, in 2018, Hurricane Florence, which unleashed a historic deluge on the Carolinas; and Hurricane Michael, an intense Category 5 storm that hit the Florida Panhandle with force.

• Related: Here Are The 2023 Hurricane And Tropical Storm Names

The Atlantic hurricane season starts in about two months, but AccuWeather noted that the curveballs thrown in 2022 are a reminder of the importance up and down the coast to prepare for anything. Despite a moderate to strong La Nina that was foreboding of a much stormier season, 2022 was much calmer than 2021 and 2020, both La Nina years.

“Even if this season were to turn out to be less active than normal, abundant warm water could lead to the development of a couple of very strong hurricanes, as we saw with Ian,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist and hurricane expert Dan Kottlowski said in a story on the weather company’s website.

“Anyone living near or at the coast must have a hurricane plan in place to deal with what could be a life-threatening or very damaging hurricane,” he said. “Now is the time to create or update your plan.”