New Map Predicts 2026-27 Winter Forecast: What It Means For FL Snow

An El Niño climate pattern “supersizing” in the Pacific is driving a new seasonal outlook that offers an early look at how much snow Florida could get this winter.

With a greater than 90% chance of continuing and a 75% probability of reaching historic strength, a powerful El Niño is expected to significantly influence global weather this winter, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. Such intense El Niño conditions typically shift the main jet stream, channeling abundant tropical moisture across the southern United States and driving active storm tracks north along the Atlantic Seaboard.

The new seasonal outlook for December, January and February reflects a classic strong El Niño pattern. In Florida, expect near normal levels for temperatures and above average precipitation.

For the Sunshine State, experts say the most important effect should be increased precipitation, with Florida expected to have an even stronger wet El Niño signal.

Experts expect the biggest effect in Florida from roughly December through March, with more frequent Gulf lows, fronts and disturbances bringing rain across the Panhandle, north Florida and the peninsula.

Periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms can also accompany those systems.

Florida's snow prospects are a different matter.

Even an exceptionally strong El Niño doesn't make measurable snow likely across most of Florida. The Panhandle and far north Florida would have the only remotely meaningful chance if an unusually strong Arctic air mass coincides with a Gulf storm.

Central and south Florida should regard El Niño almost entirely as a rain/storminess signal rather than a snow signal.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says strong El Niño winters tend to strengthen and shift the subtropical jet stream across the southern U.S., making Gulf Coast and Southeast storm systems more frequent.

For Georgia in December-February, that favors more frequent rain events and potentially some prolonged wet periods. The wet signal can persist into February-March-April, although confidence declines as El Niño begins weakening in spring.

NOAA's seasonal forecasts are explicitly incorporating the unusually strong El Niño signal this year.

Forecasters said the new seasonal outlook reflects a classic strong El Niño pattern, with generally warmer conditions favored across the northern United States and wetter weather across much of the South.

The Northwest and parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes lean drier, while the northern tier, including the Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes, has some of the best odds for a warmer-than-normal winter.

California is expected to turn increasingly wet as winter gets underway. The Southeast is the part of the country most likely to be wetter than normal, although temperatures there are expected to stay closer to normal because El Niño often brings cooler winter weather to the region.

The Northeast also generally leans warmer than normal, with wetter conditions favored in some areas along the East Coast.