Here Are The Patriots' Odds To Beat The Texans In AFC Divisional Game

FOXBOROUGH, MA — The New England Patriots are riding high off their first postseason victory since Super Bowl LIII nearly seven years ago. They will look to stack up another playoff win as the fifth seed Houston Texans come to Gillette for an AFC Divisional playoff game on Sunday, Jan. 18.

According to Fanduel Sportsbook, the Patriots are three-point favorites over. Traditionally, home teams are usually handicapped three points in matchups that are not considered one-sided toward one team. Therefore, it could be argued that oddsmakers see these two squads as fairly evenly-matched. The line opened at two and a half points on Monday but has since slightly moved further in the Pats’ favor.

The Texans come into the game with the NFL’s best all-around defense in 2025. The elite group led by former linebacker and head coach Demeco Ryans ranked first in yards allowed per game, first in expected points added per dropback, and second in points allowed during the regular season. The defense may have possibly ended future Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers’s career in unceremonious fashion with the Texans’ 30 to 6 dismantling of the Pittsburgh Steelers in their Wild Card matchup last Monday night. In the game, the defense did not allow the Steelers to find the endzone, and also scored two defensive touchdowns.

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With Patriots quarterback Drake Maye coming off a game against the Chargers in which he threw an interception and committed two fumbles, the league’s fastest learner will have to tighten things up against this formidable unit.

While Houston is thriving on one side of the ball, the other is struggling. The Texans will be without Pro Bowl wide receiver Nico Collins on Sunday due to a concussion he suffered against Pittsburgh. In addition, quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off an even shakier game than Maye, in which he fumbled the football five times and threw a red-zone interception of his own. The Patriots' defensive front, led by defensive tackle Milton Williams, will look to take advantage of a streaky Stroud, much like they did with the Chargers’ Justin Herbert this past week.

Patriots All-pro cornerback Christian Gonzalez was at risk of missing this matchup with the same injury, but was reportedly cleared to play on Friday, seemingly giving the Patriots secondary the advantage over the Texans receiving core. It has been well-documented that the Patriots did not have a difficult schedule this season, as they faced a collection of teams with the lowest combined win percentage in recent memory. On the flip side, the battle-tested Texans faced the hardest NFL schedule in 2025, which featured eight playoff teams.

Stroud and Ryans came into Houston together in 2023 and have amassed an overall record of 32 wins against 19 losses in the regular season and have reached the Divisional round of the postseason all three years. After winning the AFC South division title the past two years, Houston entered these playoffs as a wild-card team.

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The Texans are the only NFL team to never reach a conference championship game. However, it is worth noting that the team was not formed until 2002. The franchise has been on the cusp of making it to one six times, but has lost all six Divisional round matchups. Two of those defeats came against New England in 2012 and 2016, respectively. Both games were not particularly close, as the undermanned Texans were no match for the Tom Brady and Bill Belichick dynastic teams.

By Sunday evening, the Patriots are hoping to either be off to Denver to face the top-seeded Broncos or home yet again for a third round against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship.

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