'Active Severe Weather' In South Jersey Not A Trend Yet, NWS Says

A confirmed tornado that struck Mount Laurel on Saturday added intensity to what National Weather Service Meteorologist Jonathan O’Brien describes as “a very active severe weather” season in South Jersey.

Indeed, there have already been three tornadoes confirmed in South Jersey, a State of Emergency declaration in three South Jersey counties and numerous other flooding events throughout the region over the course of the last month.

But other than just being extremely active, O’Brien said there is no discernible cause for all the bad weather South Jersey has seen.

“The pattern has been steady, and there have been a lot of disturbances,” O’Brien said. “ … But one year doesn’t make a trend. For climate patterns, we like to look back over a decade or two. We get active years, and this one has been busy.”

Since 2009, there have been six confirmed tornadoes in South Jersey, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Storm Event Database. Three of them were this year. Read more here: 2 Tornadoes ID’d In NJ This Week As More Bad Weather Possible

O’Brien pointed out that all three tornadoes have been weak based on the Enhanced Fujita scale. The tornado in Gloucester Township and Deptford last month had a wind strength of EF1 (86 to 110 mph winds, moderate damage), while one that hit Mullica Hill the same day had a strength of EF0 ( 65 to 85 mph winds, light damage). The tornado in Mount Laurel was also EF0 strength.

O’Brien said a lot of the damage caused by weather this year has been caused by straight-line winds, which can cause the same kind of damage as was seen in Mount Laurel over the weekend.Read more here: Stunning Videos Show Tornado Confirmed In NJ

A storm that hit Gloucester County in 2015 a downburst, a collection of hurricane-force winds that is often confused with a tornado. Although not actually a tornado, it still flipped cars, snapped poles and caused damage throughout the region.

And then there was no tornado last month when heavy flooding lead to a State of Emergency declaration in Burlington, Camden and Gloucester counties. Read more here: NJ Gov. Phil Murphy Declares State of Emergency In South Jersey

The average is two confirmed tornadoes per year, O’Brien said. In all, four tornadoes have been confirmed across the state this year. Read more here: Tornado Hit North Jersey, NWS Confirms

Since 1950, there have been 21 years in which at least three tornadoes have been confirmed statewide, including 17 in 1989. In that same time period, there have been 155 total confirmed tornadoes in New Jersey, 73 of which were reported in Atlantic, Burlington, Cape May, Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Ocean and Salem counties. Burlington County has seen 16 of those tornadoes, more than any other county in the state. Union County was second with 13.

As technology improves, these weather events receive more attention.

“Everyone has a camera now,” O’Brien said. “We also have better reporting and better detection. Outside of that, this has also been a busy year.”

He still cautioned against connecting the weather patterns with any sort of trend, such as climate change, at this point. He said you can’t link severe weather to climate change the way you can link sea level rise or warming temperatures to a change in climate. Read more here: These 9 NJ Communities Will ‘Soon’ Be Underwater, Report Says

“Severe weather is one of the hardest things you can link to climate change,” O’Brien said. “It’s not impossible that it could be linked to climate change, but you can’t conclusively make that statement. You can’t definitively say it’s getting worse yet, but if this becomes more common, you can start to draw a link to that.”