NJ COVID Cases Likely To Rise, Restrictions Unlikely To Return: State

NEW JERSEY — New Jersey will likely see a rise in COVID-19 cases, according to state officials. But they don't anticipate "any need" to re-instate statewide mandates "at this time," Gov. Phil Murphy and State Health Commissioner Judy Persichilli said Thursday in a joint statement.

The virus's presence continues to diminish from the omicron wave that brought record infections and near-record COVID hospitalizations to New Jersey this winter. South Jersey has "low" coronavirus activity, while Central and North Jersey fall into the "moderate" category, according to the state's most recent COVID Activity Level (CALI) report.

But the presence of COVID's BA.2 strain — a subvariant known as "stealth omicron" — has grown in New Jersey. The strain appears 30 percent more contagious than BA.1 — the original omicron variant — according to the World Health Organization. The stealth subvariant has recently sparked record or near-record outbreaks throughout East Asia and Europe. Read more: 'Stealth Omicron' In NJ: Is The State In For A New COVID Wave?

BA.2 made up 18 percent of New Jersey's sampled cases in late February, compared to just 1.8 percent in the prior month, according to New Jersey's latest surveillance report. The strain has doubled in proportion every two weeks in the Garden State, according to the New Jersey Department of Health.

New Jersey withdrew its last major mask mandate this month in K-12 schools, child care settings and state-government buildings this month. BA.2 could provide the state with its first major test in weathering COVID without any major masking requirements.

"We continue to be among the nation's most-vaccinated states," Murphy's and Persichilli's joint statement said. "Our health care infrastructure remains strong. We are not going to manage COVID to zero nor are we impervious to the virus. We expect COVID to continue to mutate and cases to continue to ebb and flow. Moving to an endemic status still means we must all take personal responsibility to protect ourselves and our loved ones."

State officials urged residents to stay up to date with vaccinations and boosters, get tested when exposed or sick and monitor the state's CALI reports and the CDC Covid Community Levels for "awareness of local COVID-19 activity and CDC masking recommendations."

"Those who are immunocompromised or otherwise at high risk are encouraged to follow the guidance of their health care provider and the CDC," Murphy and Persichilli said.

BA.2 appears more contagious than its omicron predecessor, but the WHO found no difference in severity between the variants. People who caught the original omicron variant can get re-infected, but studies suggest infection from the former provides "strong protection" against re-infection from the latter, according to evidence the World Health Organization cites.

But the strain may not create a COVID wave in the United States, as it has in other countries, according to Dr. Deborah Dowell, the CDC's chief medical officer for COVID response.

"The speculation I've seen is that it may extend the curve going down of case rates of omicron, but is unlikely to cause another surge the way we've seen, that we saw initially with omicron," Dowell said last weekend during a webinar.

It remains difficult to predict whether BA.2 will translate into increased hospitalizations and deaths in New Jersey, said Dr. Tina Tan, the state health department's assistant commissioner.

"We expect new variants to continue to emerge here and around the world because we know that viruses constantly change," Tan told Patch via a spokesperson. "Variant characteristics, such as impact on vaccine effectiveness, severity of illness and transmissibility, depend on what mutations occur in the virus. And we have to rely on ongoing information collection, including viral sequencing, clinical data and observational analyses to understand what each variant's nature might be."