LONG ISLAND IN THE AFTERMATH OF THE GREAT RECESSION: SOME OPTIMISM, BUT MANY STILL WANT TO LEAVE

  From Report Prepared by Stony Brook University Center for Survey Research for LI Index  

Things Improving Slowly but High Housing Costs Loom Large  

In the fall of 2012, Long Islanders began to see an improvement in local economic conditions; somewhat fewer mentioned economic problems, such as unemployment or foreclosures, as the most important local problem. This went hand-in-hand with a slightly more sanguine view of how things were going in general. For the first time since the 2008 recession, the number of Long Island residents who said that things were heading in the right direction in their county was roughly comparable to those who said they were heading in the wrong direction. Still local optimism has not bounced back to pre-recession levels when the optimists well outnumbered the pessimists.  

A slight growth in optimism about local conditions is coupled, however, with evidence of persistent and increasing economic burden on the average Long Island household which translates into a continued desire to leave Long Island, a pervasive concern about family members leaving, and broad consternation about the exit of young people. Home values on Long Island have declined dramatically since the recession and continue to do so but this has not helped the average family budget for a number of reasons. First, median Long Island household income has also been trending downwards placing greater financial burden on local families. Second, rents have remained high, showing little or no decrease since 2008. Third, unless home owners with a mortgage refinance to take advantage of low interest rates mortgage payments remain relatively constant. For all of these reasons, a whopping 39% of Long Island households have housing costs that exceed 35% of their annual income1. With so many families struggling, perhaps it is no surprise then that the survey found there is also majority support (60%) for changes to zoning laws that would make it easier to install legal rental apartments in a single family home.  

Persistently high housing costs mean that a majority (58%) of Long Islanders have at least some difficulty in meeting their monthly rent and mortgage payments. This problem is more extreme for young people, low-income households, and non-homeowners. A lack of affordable housing options also makes it difficult for young people to move out of their parents' and relatives' home. In the current poll, 24% of Long Islanders aged between 18 and 34 lived with a parent or another relative. High housing costs are also exacerbated by high local property taxes that tend to increase over time. And while the number of Long Islanders who view the lack of affordable housing as a very or extremely serious problem has declined slightly since the recession this has not cut housing costs for the majority of residents.  

As Long Island moves slowly out of the recession Long Islanders’ economic problems persist. Declining local wages have not been met by any real drop in housing costs. For the moment, the Long Island population is increasing slowly because fewer residents are leaving. But roughly 1 in 2 say they are likely to leave Long Island in the next five years and once property values return to pre or near pre-recession levels, and in the absence of a growth in well-paying jobs, we can anticipate a renewed exodus of Long Island residents to cheaper locations elsewhere in the United States.