What Happens To Abortion In PA If Roe V. Wade Is Overturned

PENNSYLVANIA — A document reportedly leaked to Politico contains a draft majority opinion stating that the U.S. Supreme Court will overturn Roe V. Wade, the landmark abortion ruling. A final decision on the case is not expected until late June or July.

The draft majority opinion, written by conservative Justice Samuel Alito, was obtained by Politico, the outlet said Monday. The opinion also strikes down Planned Parenthood v. Casey, the case that affirmed a woman’s right to obtain an abortion. The leaked document is authentic, Chief Justice John Roberts told NBC Tuesday.

If the court strikes down Roe, abortion rights would be left to the states to decide. This shift in power to the local level makes the already 2022 election cycle in places like Pennsylvania even more impactful.

"Abortion is and will remain legal in Pennsylvania," Gov. Tom Wolf shared on Twitter Monday night, as news of the leaked document began circulating around the Internet.

Wolf added that "an official ruling has not yet been made. Once #SCOTUS does rule, it’s up to states to pass legislation to change abortion laws. I’ll veto any anti-choice legislation that lands on my desk."

Of course, Wolf leaves office next January, and his successor will be chosen this November. If it's Democratic nominee and current attorney general Josh Shapiro, the status quo seems likely to remain. If Pennsylvania elects a Republican governor in November, however, the state could be looking at an abortion ban. Republicans already control the state legislature.

Leading Republicans in Pennsylvania, including those running for higher office this fall, threw their support behind striking down Roe.

Indeed, the leading Republican candidate for governor, State Sen. Doug Mastriano, has advocated strongly for anti-abortion legislation in the past and called Roe v. Wade "science-denying genocide." So between Shapiro and Mastriano, there's no gray area as to what Pennsylvania's future would be in a future without Roe.

“January 22, 1973 was one of the darkest days in American history," Mastriano said. "On that day, seven justices of the Supreme Court ruled that the right to life could merely be reduced to a decision of convenience."

Mastriano credited President Trump with putting a conservative majority on the Supreme Court to overturn the decision.

'The Court is right," Mehmet Oz, the Republican celebrity doctor who is running for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania said. "Roe was wrongly decided. Abortion laws should be left up to the American people and their elected representatives. I look forward to supporting pro-life legislation that saves innocent lives in the U.S. Senate."

U.S. Congresswoman Chrissy Houlahan said it brought ugency to pending legislation, the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would codify the Roe v. Wade decision into federal law.

"It’s well past time we have legislation that ensures our reproductive freedoms," she shared Tuesday. "It is also yet another reason why we always must exercise our right and privilege to vote."

State Sen. Katie Muth (D-Chester) reiterated the importance of the coming election.

"The stakes were just raised in Pennsylvania," Muth said in a statement." The 2022 election couldn’t be more important. The GOP State Senate and State House candidates will work to turn back the clock for Pennsylvania women should they succeed and win this year."

Right now, 22 states have laws on their books to ban or restrict abortion, and four more appear poised to do so, according to the Guttmacher Institute, an abortion rights policy group.

Much can change before the court publishes its final decision. As draft opinions are circulated among justices, votes can and have changed on controversial cases, Politico reported.

Citing a person familiar with the court’s deliberations, Politico reported four other Republican-appointed justices voted with Alito: Clarence Thomas and three Trump-appointed justices, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett.

Abortion rights advocacy and other groups were quick to react after Politico published its report.

“Let's be clear: This is a draft opinion. It’s outrageous, it’s unprecedented, but it is not final,” Planned Parenthood tweeted. “Abortion is your right — and it is STILL LEGAL.”

The American Civil Liberties Union said overturning Roe “would deprive half the nation of a fundamental, constitutional right that has been enjoyed by millions, for over 50 years.”

“The breach in protocol at the Court pales in comparison to the breach in constitutional freedoms that the Court is charged with upholding,” the ACLU said.

The National Right to Life organization said it would “let the Supreme Court speak for itself” and would wait for its decision before commenting.

The Supreme Court heard oral argument late last year on a Mississippi case challenging Roe. The case, Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Association, challenges a Mississippi law that bans abortions in most cases after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

The law undercuts the standard set by Roe that guarantees women access to the procedure up until the fetus is viable outside her womb, typically around 23 or 24 weeks after conception, and longer in cases where the woman's life or health is in jeopardy.

Mississippi’s lawyers argued that striking down Roe, and the Planned Parenthood v. Casey case that affirmed it, is the only means available to enforce the ban.

In Roe, the Supreme Court said an unwanted pregnancy could lead a woman to "a distressful life and future." In the 1992 case, Casey v. Planned Parenthood, the court upheld Roe, finding that abortion rights were necessary for "women to participate equally in the economic and social life of the nation."

Lawyers for the state of Mississippi proposed an array of mechanisms to uphold the 15-week abortion ban but said the court ultimately should overturn the "egregiously wrong" Roe and Casey rulings.

If the court "does not impose a substantial obstacle to 'a significant number of women' seeking abortions," the state argued in December, the justices should reinterpret the "undue burden" standard established in Roe and give the state the authority to "prohibit elective abortions before viability" of the fetus.

The Center for Reproductive Rights, which challenged the law with the Jackson Women's Health Organization, argued that although the Constitution does not address pregnancy, courts have upheld the decision in Roe, which was tied to privacy and personal autonomy.

"Every version of the State's argument amounts to the same thing: a request that the Court scuttle a half-century of precedent and invite states to ban abortion entirely," the plaintiffs' brief states.

In oral arguments, Center for Reproductive Rights Senior Director Julie Rikelman said the state's ban on abortion two months before a fetus is viable outside the womb is "flatly unconstitutional under decades of precedent."

"Two generations have now relied on this right, and 1 out of every 4 women makes a decision to end a pregnancy," Rikelman said.

The plaintiffs also argued that denying women access to abortion is detrimental to their physical and emotional health.

Though the leaking of the draft opinion is unprecedented and a blow to an institution that holds the secrecy of its deliberations sacrosanct, the Supreme Court’s shift on abortion rights isn’t unexpected. The 6-3 conservative majority on the court previously signaled that it may be willing to impose new restrictions on abortion.

According to the Politico report, the three Democratic-appointed judges — Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan — are writing dissent opinions. It’s unclear how Chief Justice John Roberts will vote or if he will write an opinion of his own.