COVID-19 Surges In PA To Highest Rate In Months

PENNSYLVANIA — With Thanksgiving just days away, Pennsylvania has seen its most significant increase in new COVID-19 cases in months.

For the week ending Sunday, the state saw 29,663 new cases, an increase of more than 4,500 over the week before. Cases have been steadily rising for weeks as the state, along with many other parts of the nation, appears to be entering another surge of the virus.

And according to the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia's PolicyLab, cases are going to continue to increase before they decrease.

"Three of the most worrisome states in the country are Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where we project case incidence will quickly accelerate over the coming weeks," health experts with the Lab wrote in their most recent summary update before Thanksgiving. "Hospitalizations are now increasing in Indiana and Ohio, which both have below-average vaccination rates (only about 50 percent of residents), and Pennsylvania may be just a week or two behind."

The PolicyLab's forecasting model shows a steady increase into December, with both holiday gatherings and the cooler weather noted as reasons for case increases.

Officials said that while there are some breakthrough cases — cases among vaccinated people — and even a few severe breakthrough cases requiring hospitalization, "the majority of hospital admissions are occurring among the unvaccinated."

In addition to an increase in cases, the state's positivity rate on tests shot up from 10.2 percent to 11.7 percent in the week ending Sunday. Statewide, the hospitalization rate is increasing, slowly catching up with the rising case rate. The average daily number of hospitalizations was 2,860, up from 2,567 last week.

Hospitalizations are even increasing in highly vaccinated areas such as the greater Philadelphia area, despite more than 80 percent of adults in the region being vaccinated.

While vaccines remain the greatest protection against the virus, the PolicyLab still urged caution heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.

"We have not yet reached a point in the pandemic where we can become complacent," they wrote. "Families that include vulnerable and unvaccinated people should make plans to add layers of protection to keep everyone as safe as possible when they gather together."