How Much Snow To Expect This Winter In Eastern PA: Local Meteorologists

PHILADELPHIA, PA — A wide variety of factors are making the 2021-22 winter a difficult one for meteorologists to forecast in eastern Pennsylvania.

In fact, there are so many variables at play that 6ABC meteorologists Adam Joseph and Cecily Tynan described their best guess at the weather over the next few months as "low confidence."

Subscribe to Patch breaking news alerts in your inbox

Ultimately, however, the pair believe that an average amount of snowfall will hit most of the region, with 20 to 26 inches in the Philadelphia area, and 30 to 36 in the Lehigh Valley.

"How much wintry precipitation we actually see is really going to depend on if we can link the storms up with (cold fronts)," Joseph noted.

There are likely to be extended periods of both unseasonably warm temperatures followed by some bouts of frigid weather, when the polar vortex lines up with the region. However, as Tynan noted, it's impossible to forecast the direction of the vortex more than a few weeks out.

Making things even more difficult to forecast is the presence of climate change, which throws another wrench in long term forecasting.

Overall, both believe the region will see fewer big nor'easters or "blockbuster" storms, and more smaller storms with a high degree of variability, including wintry mixes that see snow change to rain as they progress.

This forecast more or less matches up with last month’s, which also forecasted 20 to 26 inches for the Philadelphia area, against an average of 22.6.

Meteorologists also expect the return of La Niña, a weather phenomenon that occurs when the water near the equator of the Pacific Ocean is cooler than average. It will shape part of the overall weather patterns this winter, weather experts said.

The upcoming La Niña will be weaker than the one experienced last winter, in turn, opening up the door for other elements to factor into the winter forecast — especially during the second half of the season.

This year, the polar vortex may also be weaker, according to AccuWeather.

Cities on the East Coast, as well as "the rest of the I-95 corridor," have a chance of seeing some snowy weather a little earlier than they normally would, including a few days in December. Southeastern Pennsylvania is right on the borderline, as inland areas are not predicted to see greater accumulation before the end of the year.

See Tynan and Joseph's full report over at 6ABC here.