Coronavirus In RI: 2,250 Hospitalizations Projected By May

PROVIDENCE, RI — Modeling released by Gov. Gina Raimondo Thursday shows that Rhode Island's coronavirus hospitalization peak is expected to come in the first week of May, with 2,250 hospitalizations at its height. This "blue line" estimate depends on all Rhode Islanders strictly following social distancing mandates, Raimondo said.

The "worst-case" model, or red line, assumes that Rhode Islanders relax social distancing. Under this model, the peak comes sooner on April 27, with nearly double the hospitalizations at 4,300.

"I don't think we're going to be the red line because you are doing an awesome job with social distancing," Raimondo said. "The difference between the red and blue line is the degree to which we adhere to the social distance order. For those of you wondering: Does it really matter? It really matters."

While the red line may look bleak, Raimondo said, it is actually far improved from about a week ago, when it showed a peak of 6,000 to 7,000 hospitalizations.

"A week ago, that red line looked a lot worse. A week ago, 10 days ago, that peak was a lot higher. I am not worried about that anymore," Raimondo said.

Based on these models, Rhode Island is expected to see 2,120 deaths by the end of October for the "blue line" or 4,015 deaths during that same period for the "red line," Raimondo said.

The models are based on frameworks provided by Johns Hopkins University, created by a team of around a dozen people including health experts and statisticians, Raimondo said. As with any model, they are only estimates, and therefore can only predict what could happen based off of current Rhode Island data and the experience of other states and countries.

The model shows hospitalizations rather than infection rate because it is far easier to quantify, Raimondo explained.

"We don't really know exactly how many have this. We definitely know how many people are in the hospital," she said.

Because of social distancing, Rhode Island is in pretty good shape, the governor continued.

"I think our actual experience will be even better than that blue line," she said. "I think we're doing very well. I think we clamped down quickly. We were smart about it. As a result we are in a better place than we would have been."

As the models show, Rhode Island is still several weeks away from its projected peak. That means the next few weeks are critical, Raimondo said, to keep the actual number at or below the blue line.

When it comes to the issue of schools and whether students will be back in actual classrooms before the end of the year, Raimondo said that a decision has not yet been made. She apologized to teachers, students and families, saying that she understands their frustrations at not having an answer, but needs more time to make the best choice for the state.

"This is a huge decision ... It's very, very difficult for people to work if schools are closed and they don't have child care," Raimondo said. "It weighs on me. I want to get it right. I want to try my best to get it right."

At this time, schools have been ordered to continue distance learning through the end of April. An official decision should come in the coming weeks, Raimondo said.

"I am not willing to throw in towel yet and say: 'School is done for the rest of the year.' I don't know if that will be necessary. I don't know if that's the right thing for Rhode Island," she said. "I am asking you for another week or so before I can give you that guidance."

Unemployment remains a massive concern in Rhode Island. Newly released date from the federal Department of Labor shows that more than 22,000 claims were filed in the state during the last week alone, and Raimondo said Thursday that more than 160,000 claims have been filed in total since the beginning of the crisis.

At the same time, she said, many industries, such as grocery stores, pharmacies, manufacturing facilities, health care and more are in desperate need of employees, but are facing shortages in part because people are afraid to come to work because of the virus. In an effort to connect unemployed Rhode Islanders who are searching for work with the companies that need them, the state has launched a job seeking platform as part of a collaboration between the Department of Labor and Training, Rhode Island Commerce and Skills for RI's Future. Employ RI is a place where job seekers can search for and employers can list open positions, Raimondo said.

Patch editor Scott Souza contributed to this report.

Coronavirus in Rhode Island: Latest headlines

• Rhode Island Coronavirus Deaths Exceed 100; 309 New Cases
• 22k Unemployment Claims Filed In RI Last Week
  
• 2020 Newport Flower Show Postponed Due To Coronavirus
  
• RI Residents: Check Your Stimulus Payment Status
  
• Fabric Face Masks: What You Need To Know | Coronavirus In RI