Coronavirus: When Will RI Relax Social Distancing Measures?

PROVIDENCE, RI — The institute behind one of the leading models for predicting the impacts of the coronavirus has released new findings that indicate when states may be able to relax some aspects of social distancing implemented to curb the spread of the illness.

The study determines that some states may be ready to relax social distancing measures as early as May 4 provided "robust containment strategies" are implemented to prevent a second wave of infections. In Rhode Island, the study determined that social distancing can be relaxed after June 7.

A stay-at-home order is in place through May 8. Gov. Gina Raimondo said she hopes to start reopening the state's economy after that date, provided the number of cases begins to decline in the weeks leading up to it. She outlined what needs to be in place in the state for that to happen, including robust testing, contact tracing, the ability to quickly identify cases and more.

"Clearly we are flattening the curve," Raimondo said at her Tuesday news conference. "Clearly the peak is not going to be as bad as it could have been ... It's going to make it so we all get back online sooner."

According to a model released by the state on April 16, Rhode Island's peak in hospitalizations is expected May 3 with 2,250 beds needed. If all residents continue to strictly social distance, however, it's likely that the real number will be far lower, Raimondo said at the time.

"I think our actual experience will be even better [than the projection,]" she said. "I think we're doing very well. I think we clamped down quickly. We were smart about it. As a result we are in a better place than we would have been."

The study predicted the peak will arrive much sooner on April 25 with just 778 beds needed.

The state-by-state analysis were prepared by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and are based on estimates of when infections are predicted to drop below one per one million people in each state.

Strategies for safely relaxing some social distancing include widely implemented testing, contact tracing and isolation of confirmed cases, and restricting large gatherings, the study said.

"Actual decisions by states to relax social distancing should be informed by meeting critical metrics closer to these dates, including a very low number of estimated infections in the community – less than 1 estimated infection per 1 million people," analysts wrote in a summary.

Read the full analysis here.

Patch Editor Mike Carraggi contributed to this report.

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