All Of Virginia In Either 'Growth' Or 'Surge' COVID Trajectory: Data

VIRGINIA — A COVID-19 subvariant is now likely the dominant strain of the coronavirus in Virginia and is bringing with it a higher transmission rate, according to Virginia health officials.

The omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1 is now to blame for almost 60 percent of all COVID cases in the country. Research indicates the subvariant may be about 25 percent more transmissible than BA.2.

But there is no evidence indicating BA.2.12.1 is causing more severe illnesses, although it has caused another wave of cases in Virginia and across the country and an increase in hospitalizations.

Ninety-two of Virginia's 133 localities are at medium or high Centers for Disease Control and Prevention community levels, including 27 at high, according to researchers at the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute. Masking in indoor public places is recommended at high community levels, they said.

COVID-19 community levels are a tool used by the CDC to help communities decide what prevention steps to take based on the latest data. Levels can be low, medium, or high and are determined by looking at hospital beds being used, hospital admissions, and the total number of new COVID-19 cases in an area.

All of Virginia's 35 health districts are in growth trajectories, including 30 in surge trajectories, the researchers said Friday.

Virginia's COVID-19 positivity rate is hovering around 18.2 percent, the state's highest rate since early February, when the highly contagious omicron variant was spreading rapidly, according to the Virginia Department of Health. On March 29, Virginia's 7-day COVID-19 positivity rate had fallen to 3.2 percent, the lowest rate of 2022.

On Wednesday, the VDH reported a daily case average for the previous seven days of 3,371, up from a 7-day average of 667 cases on April 1, the lowest 7-day case average of 2022.

Current projections show that the BA.2.12.1 subvariant may cause peak hospital admissions in August that will slightly exceed those experienced in January during the omicron surge, the UVA researchers said.

"Shortened lengths of stay may ameliorate the burden on hospitals," the researchers said. "The modeling team is closely monitoring COVID-19 hospitalization rates and lengths of stay to assess potential burden."

According to the CDC's Nowcast, the BA.2.12.1 subvariant is dominant in Health and Human Services Region 3, which covers Virginia, Washington, D.C., Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

"Each variant and subvariant of COVID-19 that has become dominant in the United States has had a higher effective reproduction rate than its predecessors," the UVA researchers said.

The effective reproduction rate is the actual rate of transmission measured in the community and, unlike the natural reproduction rate, is mitigated by prevention measures, and by immunity provided by previous infection or vaccination.

The researchers noted that the huge surge in cases caused by omicron in late 2021 did not result in a proportionate surge in hospitalizations and deaths. The researchers are still trying to sort out to what degree this was caused by reduced natural variance, or by factors such as immunity caused by vaccines or previous infection, new treatments, or prevention efforts like masking.

"But it is clear that vaccination and boosters play a huge role," the UVA researchers said. "Those with up-to-date vaccinations have the most protection."

One study found that boosted people had a 70-percent reduction in risk of hospitalization or death from an omicron infection.

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