Are NoVa Hospitals Prepared For Coronavirus Surge?

NORTHERN VIRGINIA — With the number of new coronavirus cases increasing nationwide, medical experts warn that the country is facing a dangerous situation of too few hospital beds. The Northern Virginia region is projected to run out of hospital beds for patients if the number of infected people reaches about a thousand. Virginia has recorded 77 confirmed cases as of Wednesday, with nearly 40 of those in the Northern Virginia region.

The warning about the potential for overwhelmed hospitals comes from an analysis by Harvard Global Health Institute and ProPublica. The new data for the first time gives a sense of which regions will be particularly stressed and should be preparing most aggressively right now.

Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam issued a public health emergency order Tuesday prohibiting more than 10 patrons in restaurants, fitness centers and theaters. The order gives local and state law enforcement the ability to enforce this ban. State health officials fear they are seeing cases of community spread in the Peninsula Health District in southeastern Virginia, where 15 people have tested positive for the coronavirus and two people have died.

President Donald Trump on Monday acknowledged the gravity of the coronavirus pandemic, releasing strict new guidelines to limit people’s interactions in an increasingly urgent bid to slow the virus in the next two weeks before U.S. hospitals are overwhelmed.

Some experts fear that state and federal measures will not be enough before hospitals in the Northern Virginia area run out of beds. When asked at a Wednesday news conference about deploying the National Guard, Northam responded: "That’s certainly an option that’s on the table.”

Northam said he can foresee the possibility of the National Guard providing assistance at hospitals, "whether that be with space, if we need to move into other structures, if we need more equipment such as ventilators, and probably, most importantly, if we need more staff."

Costi Sifri, the director of hospital epidemiology at University of Virginia Medical Center, a 600-bed hospital in Charlottesville, told the Washington Post that supply chains for personal protective equipment, especially masks, are “very very thin and limited” across the United States.

Virginia Hospital Center is partnering with local government agencies to open a drive-through site in Arlington starting Wednesday to collect samples from people who have written orders for testing and meet other criteria, according to a news release from Arlington County officials.

In the Fredericksburg area, Mary Washington Healthcare, which operates hospitals in the City of Fredericksburg and Stafford County, said its efforts to prepare for a potential influx of patients is going well.

"Currently, we have appropriate medical personnel and supplies to handle the situation. This is a fluid situation," Eric Fletcher, senior vice president and chief strategy officer for Mary Washington Healthcare, said Wednesday in an email to Patch. "We are working hard to ensure medical personnel are thoroughly protected so that they may deliver care to as many as needed as the number of people testing positive for COVID 19 increases locally."

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Right now, there is a nationwide concern about the amount of personal protective equipment available, including such items as masks, gowns and gloves. "Our supply is good now, but it is something we are closely monitoring," he said.

Mary Washington Hospital has plans in place for an alternative site of care should the number of people needing treatment swell. "We have a temporary treatment area designated adjacent to the emergency department at Mary Washington Hospital. If necessary, we can begin using that temporary care site as soon as next week," Fletecher said.

The pressure on hospitals will vary dramatically across the country, according to the new data released by the Harvard Global Health Institute. The data, for the first time, gives a sense of which regions will be particularly stressed and should be preparing most aggressively right now.

The lack of a sufficient number of hospital beds in Northern Virginia and across the country is why public health officials are so intent on “flattening the curve,” or slowing the spread of infections over a longer period of time, like 18 months instead of six.

From ProPublica:

As of 2018, the Northern Virginia region had 3,120 total hospital beds, of which about 68 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 1,000 beds open for additional patients. The bed count includes 450 beds in intensive care units, according to data from the American Hospital Association and the American Hospital Directory. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

Across the Potomac River, Washington, D.C. had 5,060 total hospital beds, of which about 68 percent were occupied, potentially leaving only 1,600 beds open for additional patients, according to the data. The bed count includes 600 beds in intensive care units. Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most acute coronavirus cases.

The Northern Virginia region, which includes Arlington County, the City of Alexandria, the City of Falls Church, Fairfax County, the City of Fairfax, Loudoun County and Prince William County, has a population of about 2.5 million residents; 11 percent are over the age of 65. The experience in other countries has shown that elderly patients have significantly higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the coronavirus.

In the moderate scenario, in which 40 percent of the adult population contracts the disease over 12 months, Northern Virginia would be among the regions that would need to expand capacity.
It is estimated that about 8 percent of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40 percent of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in Northern Virgina would receive an estimated 155,000 coronavirus patients.

The influx of patients would require 5,180 beds over 12 months, which is 5.2 times times the number of available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average, based on data from China.

In the Northern Virginia region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 170 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 6.3 times times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.

ProPublica, a Patch Partner, is a nonprofit newsroom that investigates abuses of power and other public concerns. Click here to see ProPublica’s full story and specifics about hospitals in your area.

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