Here’s How Strengthening El Niño Could Shape Next Winter In VA

An El Niño climate pattern is expected to intensify through the end of the year, setting up a winter pattern that could have significant implications for Virginia, according to federal forecasters and the Farmers’ Almanac.

The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said Monday that El Niño is strengthening, with ocean temperatures continuing to warm across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and atmospheric changes reinforcing the pattern.

Meanwhile, the Farmers’ Almanac 2026-27 winter outlook predicts a season of sharp contrasts across the country, with a wetter, stormier southern tier, quick bursts of snow and bitter cold across the North, and a tricky mix of rain, sleet, ice and heavy wet snow in the Northeast.

What Can Virginia Expect?

The Almanac says Virginia and the entire Northeast region can expect one of the more complicated winter patterns. Coastal communities may see more rain or mixed precipitation, while inland areas could get several rounds of heavy wet snow, particularly in January and February. Small changes in temperature and storm track could determine whether a storm produces rain, sleet, freezing rain or accumulating snow.

El Niño figures heavily into the Almanac’s national outlook. It said the pattern is expected to remain an important influence through the heart of winter, favoring wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the southern U.S.

An active storm track may stretch from Southern California and the Desert Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Those areas could see frequent storm systems and occasional surges of cold air.

When colder air collides with that moisture, some storms could produce sleet, freezing rain or heavy wet snow. The southern Rockies could also see substantial mountain snowfall.

What’s Happening Elsewhere?

Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac expects for the rest of the country:

Pacific Northwest: The Almanac expects a more changeable winter and a less dependable snow season. Periods of cold, wind and snow are still possible, but the region may not see consistent snowfall through the season.

Southwest: The active southern storm track could bring more frequent rain and mixed precipitation. Colder stretches could occasionally turn that moisture into wintry precipitation.

Northern Rockies and Northern Plains: Temperatures are expected to average near normal overall, but that doesn’t mean winter will be mild. Fast-moving systems could bring sudden cold snaps, snow and blustery conditions.

South Central: Winter is expected to be wetter than normal and stormy, especially as systems move through Texas and the Gulf Coast. Occasional pushes of colder air could turn some of that precipitation into sleet, freezing rain or snow.

Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Midwest: The forecast calls for cold and snowy periods mixed with occasional milder breaks. The Almanac said fast-moving clippers could produce snow squalls, gusty winds and bursts of bitter cold. The middle of the country may also see frequent swings between thawing and freezing, which could quickly change road conditions.

Southeast: Winter is expected to be cool, wet and stormy as the southern storm track sends repeated systems through the region. If colder air pushes far enough south, some storms could produce sleet, freezing rain or wet snow.

Overall, the Almanac expects some of the heaviest precipitation along two main tracks.

One could run from California and the Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. Another could carry storms up the Eastern Seaboard, creating additional chances for rain, wintry mixes and snow from the mid-Atlantic into New England.

Because temperatures may hover near freezing in some areas, precipitation type could be particularly difficult to pin down, the Almanac said. A small shift in temperature or storm direction could turn cold rain into an icy mix or change a slushy snowfall into a more significant winter storm.