Many NoVA Business Leaders Expect Economy To Stall Or Decline: Survey

Northern Virginia business leaders entered the second quarter with a mixed outlook on the strength of the economy, according to a new survey from nine Northern Virginia chambers and Pinkston, a public relations firm.

The Q1 2026 report, released April 7, surveyed 210 CEOs, corporate executives and business owners with operations across the region from March 23-30.

The survey found 66 percent of respondents believe the Northern Virginia economy will either remain about the same or decline over the next six months. That included 34 percent who said it would remain about the same, 29 percent who expected it to decline slowly and 3 percent who expected it to decline significantly.

Another 34 percent said they believe the regional economy will grow, including 27 percent who predicted slow growth and 7 percent who predicted significant growth.

Read The Northern Virginia Business Leader Survey - Q1 2026 Report

Business leaders were more upbeat about their own companies than about the broader economy. The report found 67 percent were very or somewhat optimistic about their company performance and near future, while 21 percent were neutral and 12 percent were pessimistic.

On hiring, 53 percent said staffing would stay about the same over the next six months, 30 percent said they expect to increase hiring, 8 percent said they expect to reduce headcount and 8 percent said they were unsure.

The survey also pointed to concern about the national economy and legislation in Richmond. According to the report, 56 percent of business leaders were very or somewhat pessimistic about the national economy over the next six months, while 25 percent were very or somewhat optimistic and 20 percent were neither optimistic nor pessimistic.

When asked which General Assembly proposal caused the most concern for company growth, 49 percent chose an expansion of sales taxes to services, followed by repeal of right-to-work at 27 percent, a new tax bracket for high-earning individuals at 18 percent, an increase to the minimum wage at 17 percent and paid family and medical leave at 13 percent.

For Virginia's new governor and legislature, respondents listed reducing taxes as the top policy priority at 32 percent, followed by housing affordability at 27 percent, keeping right-to-work at 20 percent, transportation and infrastructure investments at 17 percent and reducing regulation at 14 percent. At the local level, reducing taxes led again at 43 percent, followed by improve public safety at 34 percent and affordable housing at 20 percent.

The report says the survey is intended to support strategic decision-making for policymakers and the business community across multiple sectors. Respondents came from nine chamber partners across the region, with 74 percent representing companies with 1 to 49 employees and 35 percent located in Fairfax County or the City of Fairfax.

The survey was conducted with Pinkston in partnership with the Northern Virginia Chamber and eight other chambers representing Alexandria, Arlington, Central Fairfax, Falls Church, Greater Reston, Loudoun County, Mount Vernon-Springfield, and Prince William County.