Poll: Jeb Bush Inches Ahead of Hillary Clinton in Virginia

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush comes out ahead of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in a match-up for the 2016 presidential election in Virginia, according to a new poll out today by Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center.

Bush beats Clinton 48-46, the poll shows.

“Battleground Virginia will live up to its name in 2016,” said Tom Kramer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at CNU. “In the face of a barrage of attacks from her real and potential Republican challengers, Hillary Clinton’s once formidable position has weakened, as we knew it would. Even at this very early stage, the 2016 presidential election in Virginia is shaping up to be a closely fought contest.”

Virginia voters overall appear to soften on Clinton, with Jeb Bush beating her for the first time in a hypothetical 2016 match-up, according to the poll findings.

Virginia voted for a Democrat, President Obama, in the last two presidential elections. Prior to that, the Commonwealth has voted for Republicans in the presidential contest, for many years.

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On the plus side for the former first lady and U.S. Senator: Clinton has higher favorability ratings than any Republican; the bad news: her favorability rating has dropped slightly and her unfavorability has gone up slightly since the Wason Center poll in February.

What’s possibly driving the numbers down for Clinton? “Virginians are less happy with the direction of the country than they were in February, with 59 percent saying things in the United States are mostly going in the wrong direction,” the poll says.

Clinton has highest favorable and nearly highest unfavorable ratings, poll findings show

Clinton has the highest favorability rating among Virginia voters at 44 percent, but she also has among the highest unfavorable ratings at 52 percent, according to the poll.

Among Democrats, Vice President Joe Biden and former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb, who has announced that he is considering a run for the White House in 2016, have favorability ratings of 35 percent.

Republicans current favorability ratings in Virginia, the poll says, are:

• Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Florida Senator Marco Rubio: each 33 percent
• Kentucky Senator Rand Paul: 30 percent
• Texas Sen. Ted Cruz: 28 percent
• New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: 27 percent
• Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee: 25 percent
• Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker: 23 percent

Still no clear Republican front-runner among Virginia voters

While more Republican presidential candidates are making it official, none has yet to establish a convincing lead. Asked who they would vote for in a primary, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents put Jeb Bush (17%) and Marco Rubio (16%) at the front of the pack, followed by Chris Christie, Rand Paul, and Scott Walker at 10%. Tied with retired surgeon Ben Carson at only 7%, Ted Cruz’s choice of announcing his candidacy at Liberty University in Lynchburg does not appear to have helped him in the Commonwealth.

“The Republican field continues to be very fluid,” said Tom Kramer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy. “While there are no break-out candidates yet, we do see a sorting taking place, with Bush and Rubio emerging as top-tier candidates, and Christie, Paul, and Walker forming a solid second-tier.”

Clinton strengthens her lead among Democrats

Virginia Democrats’ enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has grown stronger since February. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in Virginia were held today, Clinton would cruise to a commanding victory with 80 percent of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents saying they would vote for her rather than any of the other potential challengers, up from 65 percent in February.

“For Democrats, Virginia is Hillary country,” said Kramer. “She has strengthened her position since February relative to any of her potential Democratic challengers.”

If the 2016 election were held today, Bush is the only Republican who would beat Clinton, but other Republicans are gaining on her: If Clinton’s dominance among Virginia Democrats has grown, her position among Virginia’s general electorate appears to have softened since the Wason Center’s February survey.

In February, Clinton beat all Republicans in hypothetical head-to-head 2016 match-ups, most with over 50 percent of the vote. However, in April’s head-to-head match-ups, Clinton is unable to win 50 percent of the voters against any of them, the poll shows.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush beats Clinton 48-46. Clinton’s dominance over other announced or potential Republican challengers also appears to be diminished from February, now mostly within the margin of error of this survey.

She beats Christie by 2%, 47%-45%; she beats Paul by 2%, 49%- 47%; she beats Huckabee by 3%, 49%-46%; she beats Rubio by 4%, 49%-45%; she beats Cruz by 5%, 49%-44%; and she beats Walker by 5%, 48%-43%.

PHOTOS: Jeb Bush photo from Jeb Bush public figure Facebook page; Hillary Clinton photo from campaign announcement video