2014 Season Preview: Predictions

I put one of these out every year.  Basically, I go division by division and predict how the standings will stack up come October.  I then give a lengthy paragraph explaining my rationale for the prediction.  Note that WC means Wild Card.  For the record, last year I correctly predicted the Red Sox going worst to first.

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox
2. Tampa Bay Rays-WC
3. Baltimore Orioles
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. New York Yankees

The AL East has historically been the best or one of the best divisions in baseball, but this year, I see it as average.  The Red Sox are strong, but behind them are two good teams in the Rays and Orioles and two mediocre teams in the Blue Jays and Yankees.  I'm going to go ahead and call a repeat for Boston, even though they lost Jacoby Ellsbury, Stephen Drew, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Ryan Dempster.  Aside from Ellsbury, the core remains intact with Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Jon Lester, Koji Uehara, and Mike Napoli returning.  They also made a couple of nice pickups in A.J. Pierzynski and Edward Mujica.  Upcoming rookies Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley are sure to provide added production and even compete for Rookie of the Year honors.  Tampa Bay always surprises, so when in doubt, err to the upside.  They bolstered their bullpen with the additions of Grant Balfour and Heath Bell, though they did lose Alex Torres.  Young players like Wil Myers, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, and Chris Archer will benefit from experience.  David Price wasn't dealt over the offseason, protecting their solid rotation from what would have been a severe blow.  Ben Zobrist and Evan Longoria are poised to lead a solid, versatile offense.  Baltimore returns with a potent offense lead by Chris Davis and Adam Jones, and there are plenty of big names behind those two to produce runs.  Manny Machado will start the season on the DL, but he should be back soon and should have a great season.  While their offense is excellent, what pops out to me about the Orioles is their lack of pitching.  Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Bud Norris, Wei-Yin Chen, and Miguel Gonzalez form a mediocre rotation, and Jim Johnson's trade leaves them without an established closer.  Look for the Orioles to play a lot of high scoring games, especially in that hitters' ballpark they have.  Toronto is a good team, but they lack depth.  Edwin Encarnacion has been a pleasant surprise over the past couple of seasons, but Jose Bautista has proven to be inconsistent and injury prone, much like Adam Lind.  If Bautista, Lind, and Jose Reyes can stay healthy and produce, this team could finish higher than fourth.  The offense will certainly need to score, because their rotation is mediocre at best.  Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey are aging, and Brandon Morrow has issues staying healthy.  This is a team that will need every player to play to their potential in order to win.  Sorry Yankees fans, but I don't see the Bombers competing this year.  Outside the stacked outfield with Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Alfonso Soriano, and Ichiro Suzuki, they have serious depth issues.  Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira combined for 32 games last year, while Brian Roberts hasn't played in over 77 games in a season since 2009.  Brian McCann was an excellent pickup, but an injury to him means Francisco Cervelli is in the starting lineup.  Their rotation has some big names, but it's shaky at best.  C.C. Sabathia, Michael Pineda, and Masahiro Tanaka are question marks for reasons ranging from age to injuries to lack of experience.  Overall, the team lost Robinson Cano, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, Mariano Rivera, Phil Hughes, and Andy Pettitte, all huge contributors.

AL Central
1. Kansas City Royals
2. Detroit Tigers
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Minnesota Twins
5. Chicago White Sox
 
The AL Central has historically been one of the weaker divisions, but I think it's getting stronger.  You may find it surprising, but I think that theRoyals will leapfrog the Tigers into first place.  All good things must come to an end, and the Royals have a very strong team this year.  No one player stands out, but Kansas City has the potential to have nine stellar players on the field at any given point.  Young hitters like Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Alcides Escobar, and Eric Hosmer are all reaching the age where things should come together, and veterans like Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and recent pickups Norichika Aoki and Omar Infante round out a consistent offense.  They have a solid mix of veterans and young players in their rotation, led by James Shields and Jason Vargas.  22 year old rookie Yordano Ventura had a great spring and is ready to put up big numbers.  At the back of their bullpen is the most underrated closer in baseball, Greg Holland, who saved 47 games with a 1.21 ERA in 2013.  The Tigers don't seem to have the team they've had in years past.  They still have a very good ball club, but I don't see them beating out the Royals.  Their infield took a big hit during spring training when shortstop Jose Iglesias went down with a pair of leg injuries, and Jhonny Peralta is gone to St. Louis to further hurt the infield.  Because of Iglesias' injuries, it looks like 23 year old rookie Hernan Perez will have to start at shortstop.  Detroit did acquire Ian Kinsler to replace Peralta, but Kinsler came at a hefty cost.  Prince Fielder had to be dealt, breaking up the three four punch of Miguel Cabrera and Fielder.  The outfield also doesn't appear to be very deep behind Torii Hunter and Austin Jackson.  On the bright side for Detroit, they still have the best hitter in baseball in Cabrera and Victor Martinez has not shown signs of aging.  The rotation remains as strong as ever, with Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez forming a triple ace tandem.  Joe Nathan is a solid closer, but the bullpen took a hit when Bruce Rondon needed Tommy John surgery.  The Tigers can beat the Royals, but someone other than Miguel Cabrera will need to pick up a bat and hit.  The Indians also have a very good team this year, but they seem to be just a step behind Kansas City and Detroit.  Like the Royals, they don't have any superstars, but they have good players spread out around the diamond.  Up and coming hitters Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana, and Michael Brantley join veterans Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and Asdrubal Cabrera to form a dynamic offense.  Their rotation is average, but if Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, and Justin Masterson step up, it could be a big bonus to the team.  The bullpen is shallow with the departure of Chris Perez, but they acquired John Axford and Mark Rzepcynski to fill the hole.  The Twins are improving, but I they are still about two years away from contending.  Young guys like Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, Josmil Pena, and Brian Dozier are all looking to develop a little further, and veterans Jason Kubel, Joe Mauer, and Josh Willingham are still around.  The pitching isn't great, but Minnesota picked up Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes to aid the rotation, and Glen Perkins, like Greg Holland of Kansas City, is one of the most underrated closers in baseball.  Look for them to aim for .500 this year.  In last place I see the White Sox, who lack depth of any kind.  Jose Dariel Abreu and Adam Eaton were great pickups, but guys like Alexei Ramirez, Adam Dunn, and Gordon Beckham will need to step up if the team wants to get anywhere.  Behind the plate, this team has nothing, as Tyler Flowers and Hector Gimenez appear poised to work as catchers.  Behind Chris Sale in the rotation, this team has very little in terms of starting pitchers, and the inexperienced Nate Jones is slated to close.

AL West
1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Oakland Athletics-WC
3. Texas Rangers
4. Seattle Mariners
5. Houston Astros

The power balance in the AL West is beginning to shift, as the Rangers begin to fall in the standings and the A's, Mariners, and Astros improve (yes, even the Astros can improve).  The team I like most in the West is the Angels, led by big name hitters like Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and Mike Trout.  The team has depth, and with injury prone guys like Pujols, Hamilton, David Freese, and Raul Ibanez, that could come in handy.  The rapidly improving outfield looks to start Josh Hamilton and Mike Trout at two positions, but up and comers J.B. Shuck, Kole Calhoun, and Colin Cowgill look to vie for the third spot, and all three are very good players.  The infield, led by starters Pujols, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar, and David Freese, has solid insurance in John McDonald, Grant Green, and Ian Stewart.  Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson head a strong rotation that also includes recent additions Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs.  The one weak spot of the team is the bullpen.  Ernesto Frieri and Joe Smith form a solid back end, but the team will need to find a way to get consistent sixth and seventh inning outs.  The A's again have a solid team, but they won't be a surprise when the compete for the division crown.  Like the Angels, the A's are deep and have numerous ways of coping with injuries and slumps.  Yoenis Cespedes, Josh Donaldson, and Brandon Moss lead the offense, while their rotation is deep even after Jarrod Parker's Tommy John surgery.  I think 24 year old ace Sonny Gray will have a breakout season, and other young starters like Dan Straily, Tommy Milone, and Drew Pomeranz are coming into their own.  Oakland upgraded its bullpen with the additions of Jim Johnson, Eric O'Flahery, and Luke Gregerson over the offseason.  The Rangers are very good, but injuries have ravaged them and I don't think they can recover.  Yu Darvish will start on the DL, Geovany Soto and Jurickson Profar are out until late June, and Derek Holland is unlikely to return before then too.  With Profar being the only hit to the offense, they will still be a very good hitting team.  Prince Fielder was a huge addition, but they lost Ian Kinsler with the expectation that Profar would take over.  Shin-Soo Choo was also a great addition, but then again, they lost Nelson Cruz in the outfield.  They also lost A.J. Pierzynski, so the offense is about where it was last year.  With Yu Darvish out, Tanner Scheppers will be the Opening Day starter, while the rest of the inexperienced rotation includes Martin Perez (age 23), Robbie Ross (age 24), Nick Martinez (age 23), and Joe Saunders.  Three of the five starters, including Ross, Martinez, and Opening Day starter Scheppers, have never started a major league game.  The loss of closer Joe Nathan also leaves the bullpen less than spectacular.  Really, it's just the additions of Choo and Fielder that keep them ahead of the Mariners in my book.  Seattle has a good team, but I think they need another year before they compete.  Robinson Cano and Corey Hart joined to stabilize the offense, but outside those two, it's just Kyle Seager that wields an established bat.  If they want their offense to be any good, guys like Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley, Mike Zunino, and Abraham Almonte will have to figure out how to hit at the major league level.  Cano, Hart, and Seager can't carry the offense alone.  Felix Hernandez again leads the rotation, but injuries to Hisashi Iwakuma and Taijuan Walker leave the rest of rotation almost Houston level.  The strong point of Seattle is their bullpen, as they added Fernando Rodney over the offseason to pitch with Tom Wilhelmsen and up and comers Danny Farquhar, Yoervis Medina, and Charlie Furbush.  Say what you want about the Astros; they're improving.  I can't see them catching the Mariners, but they have the potential to play .400 ball and not finish last in baseball for a fourth straight season.  Their offense has caught up to major league standards, as they added Dexter Fowler and Jesus Guzman over the offseason and young guys like Chris Carter, Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, Jonathan Villar, Robbie Grossman are ready to contribute.  Their pitching is still relatively abysmal, as their Opening Day starter, Scott Feldman, possesses a 4.62 career ERA.  Behind him are more young guys like Jarred Cosart, Brett Oberholtzer, and Lucas Harrell.  Their bullpen lost two main guys in Jesse Crain and Alex White to injuries, so Chad Qualls and Matt Albers look like the only trustworthy relievers.

NL East
1. Washington Nationals
2. Atlanta Braves-WC
3. New York Mets
4. Miami Marlins
5. Philadelphia Phillies

The NL East doesn't appear as strong this year, and the Nationals look like the clear favorites to me.  Ok, saying there's probably some bias in there, but the Braves took a step backward and the Nats had a good offseason.  The offense lost only Chad Tracy and Steve Lombardozzi from last year, but the additions of Nate McLouth, Jose Lobaton, and Kevin Frandsen leave the offense deeper than last year.  Bryce Harper is due for a breakout season, while Denard Span is coming off an excellent spring.  Washington will have a full season with Anthony Rendon at second, and guys like Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, Jayson Werth, and Ian Desmond look to keep on hitting.  Though recent addition Doug Fister will open the season on the DL, the rotation is as solid as ever, headed by three aces: Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Jordan Zimmermann.  The Nats have more than enough starting pitching depth to handle Fister's injury, with Tanner Roark and Taylor Jordan beginning the year in the rotation.  Jerry Blevins gives the Nats an actual left hander in the bullpen, and Rafael Soriano is back for the second year of his two year deal.  This team really has no weak spots.  The Braves offense is as good as ever, and they might be one of the best hitting teams in the NL.  Freddie Freeman and Justin Upton are the two big hitters in the lineup, and if Jason Heyward can scrape everything together and have a breakout season, this lineup will be unstoppable.  Dan Uggla, Chris Johnson, and Evan Gattis also provide big bats, while nothing will get by Andrelton Simmons at shortstop.  The bullpen is also excellent, with un-hittable closer Craig Kimbrel at the back end and solid relievers Luis Avilan and Jordan Walden setting him up.  The huge question mark for Atlanta is the starting rotation, which took two big hits during Spring Training with both Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy undergoing Tommy John surgery.  With Ervin Santana and Mike Minor not scheduled to join the team until mid-April, the only established starter in the rotation is 23 year old sophomore Julio Teheran.  If one team in the NL East is in a better position this year than last year, it's the Mets.  They're still not quite a contending team, but the young team grew a little more experienced and GM Sandy Alderson made a couple of nice pickups for the team.  Curtis Granderson and Chris Young bolstered the outfield, and with guys like Juan Lagares, Eric Young, and Lucas Duda also available to play out there, New York should have no problem putting out three solid outfielders at any point. The infield isn't quite as strong, though it is anchored by face-of-the-franchise third baseman David Wright.  Daniel Murphy is improving and Ruben Tejada is healthy, while Ike Davis looks ready for a bounce back season.  New York improved its rotation with the signing of Bartolo Colon, while the rest of the young rotation has gained experience.  The bullpen looks mediocre, but if Jose Valverde can bounce back, it could be strong.  I see the Mets competing in 2015.  The Marlins, like the Mets, have improved over the offseason.  Their major league worst offense of last year was improved by the additions of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Casey McGehee, Garrett Jones, and Rafael Furcal, while young guys like Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Adeiny Hechavarria look to build off of last year.  Of course, having the 6'6", 240 pound Giancarlo Stanton is a bonus.  The rotation is still mediocre, but it's headed by Jose Fernandez and the rest is young and improving.  The weakest spot of the team is probably the bullpen, because behind Steve Cishek and Mike Dunn.  Injuries and age have hurt the Phillies, and the team does not look as strong as in years past.  Of their starting nine for Opening Day, six are at least 34 years old, with Marlon Byrd being the oldest at 36.  The three guys actually under 34, being Ben Revere, Cody Asche, and Domonic Brown, will provide the team with some energy.  The rotation will be without Cole Hamels for April, and aside from Cliff Lee and A.J. Burnett, it doesn't look to have much upside.  Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is also injured.  The bullpen is ok, with Jonathan Papelbon and Antonio Bastardo lining up at the back end.  

NL Central
1. St. Louis Cardinals
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Pittsburgh Pirates
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Chicago Cubs

Aside from the Cubs, everyone is good in the Central.  The Cardinals look like a clear favorite to me, considering they have no weaknesses.  Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Matt Carpenter lead a stacked offense that also just added Jhonny Peralta and Peter Bourjos.  With guys like Jon Jay, Daniel Descalso, and Mark Ellis on the bench, this team has depth too.  Adam Wainwright, one of the best pitchers in baseball, leads the rotation, and he's followed by solid pitchers like Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller.  However, the bullpen is merely average with the loss of Edward Mujica, but Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, and Randy Choate should be able to get the job done.  Jason Motte will also join the team at some point before the All Star Break.  The Reds have been ravaged by injuries, but many of the injured players are expected back soon.  Devan Mesoraco, Aroldis Chapman, Mat Latos, Jonathan Broxton, Jack Hannahan, Sean Marshall, and Skip Schumaker are all expected to open the season on the DL.  However, the core of the offense is untouched.  Big hitters Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Ryan Ludwick, and Brandon Phillips are all healthy, and the first full season with Billy Hamilton will bring excitement.  Though Latos is down, the rotation still has a healthy Johnny Cueto, and Tony Cingrani is looking for a breakout season.  Homer Bailey also provides a solid starting option.  With Chapman, Marshall, and Broxton starting the season on the DL, the bullpen will have a very rough go for the first couple weeks of the season.  Once Chapman is back, however, opposing hitters will have a very daunting ninth inning task.  A big bonus to the Reds is that they have my former favorite player, Roger Bernadina.  He'll hit .350 with 30-40 homers this year and the Nats will be sorry they released him.  Deciding third place between the Pirates and Brewers was difficult, but I ultimately chose the Pirates.  They again have a very good offense, led by my second overall fantasy pick, Andrew McCutchen, as well as Starling Marte, Neil Walker, Pedro Alvarez, and Russell Martin.  The rotation is average, led by inconsistent Francisco Liriano and Charlie Morton as well as 23 year old sophomore Gerrit Cole, with veteran Wandy Rodriguez slotting in at number four.  The bullpen is a strong spot for the team, with Jason Grilli, Mark Melancon, Tony Watson, and Justin Wilson forming an underrated back-end quartet.  The Brewers have the best offense of any of my fourth place teams, led by Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Jean Segura, and Mark Reynolds.  Sophomore Scooter Gennett is also looking to build off his solid 2013 rookie campaign, and Mark Reynolds was added at first base.  The rotation is average, with Yovani Gallardo earning his fifth straight Opening Day call, while offseason addition Matt Garza is a huge improvement.  Kyle Lohse is also expecting great things for his 14th major league season.  Like their rotation, the bullpen is about average, with Francisco Rodriguez and Jim Henderson getting crucial eighth and ninth inning outs.  However, behind the three, only Brandon Kintzler is an established major league reliever.  As of now, it looks like the "just wait 'till next year" is still a thing in Chicago, as the Cubs look to put out a very poor team.  The Cubs and White Sox, to me the two worst teams in baseball, will make for a long year in the Windy City.  Starlin Castro, who at this point was supposed to be a cornerstone for the franchise, struggled to a .245 average last year, while Anthony Rizzo is coming off a 2013 where he hit .233, while Darwin Barney hit .208.  In fact, it looks like the only bright spots for the north-siders are 24 year old sophomore Junior Lake and offseason addition Justin Ruggiano.  It will take Castro, Rizzo, and Barney bouncing back in order for this offense to be any good.  The rotation isn't much better, with decent righty Jeff Samardzija making the Opening Day start.  Other decent starters include Edwin Jackson and Jason Hammel.  Jose Veras represents a solid force in the back of the the bullpen, but the team will have to rely heavily on James Russell and Pedro Strop to get the ball to Veras, as there isn't much other talent there.

NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants-WC
3. Colorado Rockies
4. Arizona Diamondbacks
5. San Diego Padres

The West is very good this year.  The stacked Dodgers are the favorites, considering they have no weaknesses due to a payroll over $200 million.  The first thing everyone looks out with the LA offense is the outfield, which is led by four starter quality hitters in Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Yasiel Puig.  They also have superstars Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez in the starting lineup.  Though Clayton Kershaw is starting the season on the DL, he will be back, and the best pitcher in baseball expects no less than another Cy Young Award.  He is followed by fellow ace Zack Greinke, Korean standout Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dan Haren in a great rotation.  The bullpen has three closers at the back end with Kenley Jansen, Brian Wilson, and Chris Perez.  J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez also provide the Dodgers with two excellent lefties to use late in games.  Deciding between the Giants, Rockies, and Diamondbacks was tough, but it was the San Francisco rotation that ultimately kept them on top.  Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum, and Ryan Vogelsong form one of the best quintets in baseball, as all five have been All Stars at some point and combine for twelve All Star appearances.  The bullpen can hold its own, as Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, and Santiago Casilla can each be trusted with the ball late in games.  The offense is a bit top heavy, with big boppers Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, Hunter Pence, and Michael Morse having very little support behind them.  An minor spring injury to Marco Scutaro certainly did not help.  Really, the lack of capable hitters at the bottom of the lineup is what keeps the Rockies and Diamondbacks so close in my book.  While the Giants look to ride their pitching, theRockies will do just the opposite.  They are an excellent hitting team (no doubt helped by Coors Field), as hitters one through nine can beat up an opposing pitching staff.  Troy Tulowitzki, Carlos Gonzalez, and Wilin Rosario are three middle of the order bats you don't want to mess with, while offseason additions Drew Stubbs and Justin Morneau are more than capable of replacing Dexter Fowler and Todd Helton, respectively.  They are deep, too, with solid options like Jordan Pacheco, Corey Dickerson, and Charlie Blackmon on the bench.  Quite unlike the Giants, the Rockies have a terrible rotation.  Ace Jhoulys Chacin will start the season on the DL, and he is followed by Jorge De La Rosa (a very good pitcher), Brett Anderson (coming off a string of injury filled seasons), Tyler Chatwood (unestablished), and Juan Nicasio (also unestablished).  The bullpen is a little better than the rotation with Wilton Lopez and Rex Brothers as set-up men, but going with 41 year old LaTroy Hawkins, ready for this 20th season in 2014, is an interesting decision.  Boone Logan was a big pickup for the team, but he will start the season on the DL.  The Diamondbacks are the last of the three teams I have lumped very close together.  Their offense depends on a couple of things; Paul Goldschmidt needs to repeat his near MVP 2013 season, Aaron Hill has to stay injury free, and Mark Trumbo must cut down on his strikeouts.  If those three things happen, the D-Backs could very well compete with the Dodgers.  In addition to Goldschmidt, Hill, and Trumbo, Martin Prado and Miguel Montero offer diverse offensive abilities.  The rotation is decent, with Wade Miley, Trevor Cahill, and Brandon McCarthy leading the bunch.  McCarthy's health his critical to the rotation's success.  Arizona also added Bronson Arroyo over the offseason to aid on the mound, and it turns out to be a good thing with Patrick Corbin going down with a torn UCL.  Addison Reed, J.J. Putz, and Brad Zeigler lead a good bullpen, and the team has plenty of depth in the case of injury.  Lastly, I can't see the Padres competing in the tough NL West.  The only offensive forces they possess are Chase Headley, Jedd Gyorko, and Carlos Quentin, and Quentin will start the season on the DL with a knee injury.  Chris Denorfia, Yonder Alonso, and Everth Cabrera also look to help the offensive cause.  Their rotation is not sufficient to support a contending team, with two good (not great) starters in Andrew Cashner and Ian Kennedy sitting at the top and the mediocre Tyson Ross, Eric Stults, and Robbie Erlin following up.  The bullpen forms a strong point for the team, as Huston Street, Joaquin Benoit, and Alex Torres form a nearly unstoppable late inning team.  

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Teams followed in this update: Washington Nationals, Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers
If your team is not included, please leave a comment.
HR: home runs.  RBI: runs batted in.  AVG: batting average.  SB: stolen bases.  ERA: earned run average. WHIP: walks/hits per innings pitched.  K's: strikeouts. WPCT: winning percentage
Zack Silverman