Fall Arrives In Virginia: When To Expect Fall Foliage, Where To Visit

VIRGINIA — Fall arrives Thursday, but we may have to wait more weeks to see more evident changes in the leaves. There are several fall foliage predictions out so Virginia residents know when to expect the vibrant fall colors on the trees.

In Virginia, residents can look to weekly reports from the Virginia Department of Forestry and the fall foliage prediction map from SmokyMountains.com. Based on early information, Northern Virginia can expect a fall foliage peak in the latter part of October.

As fall starts this week, the Virginia Department of Forestry noted Virginia's forests remain mostly green. However, some trees have begun to turn a faded green as chlorophyll production slows.

Color changes on the trees start along the mountains in western Virginia. According to the Department of Forestry, around 2 to 10 percent of changing colors are already appearing in the highest mountains of southwest Virginia and the Allegheny mountains.

There's good news if you live elsewhere, because the Department of Forestry says color changes will soon move down the mountains. The first leaves to change will include black gum (bright red), yellow-popular (yellow) and dogwood (deep, dull red).

Typically, the fall foliage peak is between Oct. 10 and 20 in southwest Virginia and along the western mountains, according to the Department of Forestry. In Northern Virginia and more central areas of Virginia, the peak is typically around Oct. 15 to 25. The latest peak will happen Oct. 20 to 31 in the eastern parts of the state.

SmokyMountains.com's fall foliage prediction map provides week-by-week predictions. The earliest peak is expected in a small area of western Virginia during the week of Oct. 17. The peak in Northern Virginia and most western parts of the state is expected during the week of Oct. 24. Then, more eastern parts of the state will see a peak during the week of Oct. 31.

A minimal appearance of fall foliage is forecast in a small part of western Virginia during the week of Sept. 19. Minimal fall foliage will start to appear in Northern Virginia during the week of Sept. 26, become patchy in the week of Oct. 3, appear partially changed the week of Oct. 10 and near peak the week of Oct. 17.

David Angotti, a statistics expert in Tennessee, first created the Fall Foliage Prediction Map for SmokyMountains.com in 2013 to help visitors plan their vacations when autumn leaves are the most brilliant.

“What started as a fun side project quickly became the most respected nationwide fall leaf map and one of the best fall resources in the country,” Angotti said in a news release.

No predictive tool is 100 percent accurate, but it can give you a pretty good shot at seeing autumn leaves when they turn their most blazing reds, vibrant orange and sunny yellows.

This year, the data scientists will incorporate reports from map users to update the map late September. The backbone of the map is meteorology — temperature, moisture, sunlight and precipitation — but it incorporates historical and forecast data, including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration precipitation forecasts, elevation, actual temperatures, temperature forecasts and average daylight exposure to develop each county’s fall baseline date.

There’s more than shorter days, longer nights and falling temperatures to signal to trees that it’s time to prepare for winter. The predictive map uses a complex algorithm that analyzes several million data points and spits out about 50,000 predictive data pieces.

This allows for a county-by-county forecast on the precise day the peak should occur. This year, the formula will get a midseason update in late September that will pull in the latest data to increase the accuracy and usefulness of the tool.

Best Fall Foliage Views in Virginia

For the second year, the SmokeMountains.com map creators included the top places to see fall leaves in Virginia to help you plan leaf peering trips. It's no surprise Shenandoah National Park is in the mix with the Blue Ridge Mountains providing a scenic fall backdrop. This park is 75 miles from DC and has more than 516 miles of trails.

The other top place is Whitetop Mountain in southwest Virginia near the North Carolina border. It's easily accessible driving up a gravel road to view "patchwork of reds, oranges, and golds as far as the eye can see," according to SmokyMountains.com.

If you're planning to visit Shenandoah National Park to see the fall foliage, fall is typically the busiest time. At campgrounds, fall weekends are already completely booked. The National Park Service encourages visitors to come during the week if possible to avoid crowds and full parking lots. The busiest entrance stations with the longest waits are Front Royal and Thornton Gap, so the National Park Service suggests alternative stations like Swift Run (on Route 33) or Rockfish (on Route 64).

Visitors can check Shenandoah National Park's Instagram and Facebook every Thursday for new photos of the fall colors and hold a fall broadcast via Facebook at 2 p.m. on Thursdays. The national park has a real-time fall color webcam that can be checked daily.

What Causes The Different Colors

You probably remember from science class that the color change all starts with photosynthesis. Leaves constantly churn out chlorophyll — a key component in a plant’s ability to turn sunlight into the glucose it needs to thrive — from spring through early fall. Those cells saturate the leaves, making them appear green to the human eye.

But leaves aren’t green at all. Autumn is the time for leaves’ big reveal: their true color, unveiled as chlorophyll production grinds to a halt. The colors in fall’s breathtaking tapestry are influenced by other compounds, according to the national park’s website.

Beta-carotene, the same pigment that makes carrots orange, reflects the yellow and red light from the sun and gives leaves an orange hue.

The production of anthocyanin, which gives leaves their vivid red color, ramps up in the fall, protecting and prolonging the leaf’s life on a tree throughout autumn.

And those yellows that make you feel as if you’re walking in a ray of sunshine?

They’re produced by flavonol, which is part of the flavonoid protein family. It’s always present in leaves but doesn’t show itself until chlorophyll production begins to slow.