Polls: Moore Has Slight Edge Over Jones Heading Into Election

BIRMINGHAM, AL - In what has been possibly the most publicized election in Alabama history, polls released the eve of the Senate election between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones show Moore clinging to a 3.5 point lead.

According to Real Clear Politics, some polls show Moore ahead by as many as nine points, while one poll shows Jones ahead by 10 points. Averaged together, Moore has a small lead. Most experts say the race is too tight to predict, and will depend on voter turnout, which has been hard to predict in elections past.

Jones entered November trailing Moore by single digits in most polls, which had been unheard of in Alabama since the 90s - the last time a Democratic senator was elected from Alabama.

Although Jones vowed to campaign on what he called "kitchen table issues" including crime, education, economics and Constitutional issues, none of that mattered after November 9, when The Washington Post published a story wherein four women accused Moore of pursuing them sexually and romantically when they were teenagers and he was in his 30s.

After that, more allegations surfaced regarding Moore and teen girls, and the stories seemed to reveal a pattern of behavior by Moore in that regard. Moore has denied the allegations, and said they are politically motivated. However, throughout the month of November the race to fill the Alabama Senate seat focused almost entirely on the alleged sex scandal, despite Jones attempting to stay clear of the issue, trying to keep his campaign centered on its initial platform of "kitchen table issues."

When Jones began his campaign he requested repeatedly for Moore to debate him publicly, and Moore refused, which could have hurt Moore's campaign before the sexual misconduct scandal dominated the election discussion. For the most part, Moore's political positionshad been mostly linked to his history of touting the 10 commandments as the law of the land, and statements he had made in his two decades of prior public service as a district attorney and judge. Jones had been timid to use the allegations against Moore in his campaign messages, trying instead to remain focused on his original platform - to defeat Moore using issues important to Alabamians, and using Moore's lack of comment on issues as his ammunition.

By December, Jones and his campaign started using the sexual misconduct allegations as ammunition against Moore. Despite the allegations, polls show Moore's core supporters have remained loyal, as most have said they either do not believe the allegations against him or find that the allegations - even if true - would not make them vote for Jones.

Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill said fewer than 500,000 Alabamians voted in the GOP runoff election in late September, when Moore beat Sen. Luther Strange. Turnout is expected to be higher in Tuesday’s election, but Merrill is still only predicting turnout of about 25 percent of registered voters, well under 1 million.

Polling stations will be open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. To find out registration status and polling locations, voters may go to the Secretary of State website here.

Photo by Michael Seale