Analysis: Why Latest DCH COVID-19 Surge Is Especially Troubling

TUSCALOOSA, AL — Another day brought more coronavirus hospitalizations in Tuscaloosa, as DCH Health System topped 90 total inpatients on Tuesday. This represents the highest one-day mark in virus-positive patients since Feb. 9, when numbers were on a downward slope from a surge over the holidays.

Thankfully, no new deaths among Tuscaloosa residents or others positive with the virus receiving care at DCH were reported overnight, despite ICU totals climbing to 23 — up from 8 on July 20.

Click here to subscribe to our free Tuscaloosa Daily newsletter and breaking news alerts

In looking at recent trends, DCH saw its number of new patients rise at a disturbingly rapid pace, spiking from 15 two weeks ago to 90 total on Tuesday. With that in mind, DCH has maintained that more than 90% of its new hospitalizations are unvaccinated patients, which is in line with trends seen in hospitals across Alabama.

Why this matters

The local distrust in the vaccine becomes much more worrisome when realizing the 75 hospitalizations added to DCH's total also marks the sharpest two-week rise in local coronavirus-positive inpatients since the onset of the pandemic. Tuscaloosa hospital beds, up to this point, have not filled to near capacity until after weeks of steady upticks in hospitalizations, which sets the current surge apart, at least with respect to hard numbers.

For instance, during the late fall 2020 surge in hospitalizations in Tuscaloosa, the hospital system saw its numbers gradually climb over a period of several months, slowly building from summer to late winter when DCH seemed on a trajectory to top 200 inpatients around the start of the year. At no other time in the pandemic, solely speaking for Tuscaloosa, has the number of patients shot up so quickly.

The primary difference for the hospital when comparing the current surge to the one that crescendoed in the weeks after the holidays is the availability of the vaccine, which could explain the acceleration in the new hospitalizations among younger, non-vaccinated patients, compared to the previous waves that by and large saw older individuals hit with the worst symptoms.

But apart from public apprehension of the vaccine and the rapid local rise in new cases, another point of concern in the weeks to come will be the return of students to in-person learning for the upcoming school year. This will also be coupled with the thousands of students returning to Tuscaloosa for in-person classes at the University of Alabama, Stillman College and Shelton State Community College.

Patch reported last week when DCH expressed concerns for the demographics with the lowest vaccination rate when hospital officials said only 35.9% of those 30-49 had been vaccinated, along with 24.8% of those 18-29 and 5.2% of those from 12-17.

"These vaccination rates correspond to reduced hospitalizations for COVID-19 and it appears younger populations have felt less vulnerable because they have been vaccinated at much lower rates in Alabama," DCH spokesperson Andy North previously said.

The low vaccination rates among younger cohorts can be compared to more than 70% of those 60 and up and 53% for those in Tuscaloosa ages 50-64.

Local officials continue to hold out on reinstating mandates for masks and limits on public gatherings, with Patch reporting on Tuesday that Tuscaloosa City Schools and the Tuscaloosa County School System are both mulling over the state's public health toolkit before moving forward with any adjustments. At present, both districts will make masks voluntary for students and employees, per the standing order from Gov. Kay Ivey.

The Alabama Department of Public Health announced Monday its COVID-19 guidelines as schools begin to open statewide. The ADPH guidance follows the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's recommendation for masking of all students and staff.

While the recommendations from federal and state officials have been clearly expressed, elected officials, institutions and business have been slow to exercise their own authority out of the line with current executive orders in place from the governor's office.

According to the latest ADPH vaccination numbers published Tuesday, 140,968 doses of the coronavirus vaccine have been administered in Tuscaloosa County, with 79,098 having received their first shot and 65,715 finishing their vaccination series.

Have a news tip or suggestion on how I can improve Tuscaloosa Patch? Maybe you're interested in having your business become one of the latest sponsors for Tuscaloosa Patch? Email all inquiries to me at ryan.phillips@patch.com.